Research Library

Is the U.S. headed for a recession? History tells us a near-term recession is unlikely — but emergent threats like unregulated crypto exchanges and U.S. debt servicing necessitate further measures to mitigate economic risk, writes public finance fellow Jorge Barro.

Political, market and geopolitical headwinds have slowed down Biden’s ambitious climate plans, write energy experts Anna Mikulska and Michael Maher. In this brief, they explore why progress on decarbonization is likely to be more gradual than initially envisioned.

In this issue brief, public finance fellow Jorge Barro finds that lower state income taxation is associated with higher net taxpayer migration. Further, Barro explains that since the passage of the 2017 tax reform, taxpayers and earnings potential have both migrated to lower-taxing states at a faster rate.

The authors explore a causal relationship between the 2017 tax reform and a decline in wealth inequality.

In this brief, public finance fellow Jorge Barro explains some of the long-term economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and argues that policymakers can prepare for the impending macroeconomic shortfalls by maintaining a commitment to improving education, prioritizing immigration and resolving fiscal imbalances.

While recent headlines announce that President Biden's proposed budget will drive the national debt past WWII levels, fellow Jorge Barro explained in November 2020 that a projected surge will be very different from the 1940s.

Public finance fellow Jorge Barro analyzes Federal Reserve survey data released in September 2020 that shows that U.S. wealth inequality has declined for the first time in 30 years.

Fellow Jorge Barro studies U.S. capital markets to provide a long-term outlook on the macroeconomic consequences of unbalanced debt growth.

In the near term, a ban on shale development in Mexico will have little impact since factors like limited infrastructure and access to water would likely stall progress in any case, the authors conclude. In the long-run, a ban may adversely affect efforts to diversify Mexico’s gas supply.

The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Acts offers a starting point for compromise to revitalize the corporate income tax, fellows Jorge Barro and Joyce Beebe write in this issue brief.