Skip to main content
Home

Main navigation

  • Centers & Programs
    • Centers
      • Center for Energy Studies
      • Center for Health and Biosciences
      • Center for the Middle East
      • Center for Public Finance
      • Center for the U.S. and Mexico
      • McNair Center
      Center for Energy Studies
      Providing new insights on the role of economics, policy and regulation in the performance and evolution of energy markets.
      More Details
      The globe at night, lights in populated areas illuminated
      Center for Health and Biosciences
      Advancing data-based policies that promote health and well-being in the U.S. and around the world.
      More Details
      Female healthcare worker lifts finger to press digital buttons featuring topical iconography
      Edward P. Djerejian Center for the Middle East
      Developing pragmatic policy approaches to the region’s enduring political, economic and societal concerns.
      More Details
      Topographic map of Middle East
      Center for Public Finance
      Delivering research and analysis on the effects of major U.S. fiscal policies.
      More Details
      Stack of coins with mathematical figure overlays
      Center for the U.S. and Mexico
      Strengthening the binational relationship by addressing major concerns on both sides of the border.
      More Details
      Textured flags of America and Mexico
      McNair Center for Entrepreneurship and Economic Growth
      Providing actionable policy analysis and recommendations that aim to expand the economy through private enterprise.
      More Details
      Professionals gather around a large table with laptops, printed documents and coffee cups for a business meeting
    • Programs
      • China Studies
      • Drug Policy
      • International Economics
      • Presidential Elections
      • Religion & Public Policy
      • Science & Technology Policy
      • Space Policy
      China Studies
      Analyzing the influence of the transnational circulation of people, technologies, commodities and ideas in China.
      Read More
      Person walks alongside large banner with Chinese characters
      Drug Policy
      Pursuing research and open debate to develop pragmatic drug policies based on common sense and driven by human rights interests.
      Read More
      Marijuana
      International Economics
      Studying timely issues in global economic policy as well as developmental policy in foreign countries.
      Read More
      International paper currencies stacked together, showing range of colors and styles
      Presidential Elections
      Offering nonpartisan analysis of elections to better understand the changing dynamics of presidential campaigns.
      Read More
      An assortment of campaign buttons from a variety of US elections and political pursuits are displayed in a collage
      Religion and Public Policy
      Exploring how religion and cultural factors interact with public policy issues.
      Read More
      A worn path stretches between rows of olive trees
      Science and Technology Policy
      Addressing a broad range of policy issues that affect scientists and their research.
      Read More
      A scientist picks up test tubes from a rack.
      Space Policy
      Focusing on U.S. space policy and the future of space travel.
      Read More
      The International Space Station (ISS) orbits the Earth at sunrise
  • Events
    Analyzing market trends
    McNair Center for Entrepreneurship and Economic Growth
    Mon, Apr. 03, 2023 | 12 pm - 1 pm
    Free Enterprise Lunch & Learn: Why Capitalism Is the Most Ethical Economic System See Details
    Electric car concept
    Roundtable
    Tue, Apr. 04, 2023 | 4 pm - 5:30 pm
    Baker Briefing: Tesla, Taxes and Texas See Details
    Innovators design new technology
    McNair Center for Entrepreneurship and Economic Growth | Science and Technology Policy
    Wed, Apr. 05, 2023 | 2 pm - 3 pm
    Accelerating Research into Innovation: What Universities and the US Patent Office Can Do to Pick Up the Pace See Details
  • Experts
    • Biomedical Research
    • Child Health
    • China
    • Conflict Resolution in the Middle East
    • Domestic Health Policy
    • Drug Policy
    • Energy
    • Entrepreneurship and Economic Growth
    • Global Health
    • Health and Biosciences
    • Human Rights and Refugees
    • International Economics
    • Islam and Politics
    • Latin American Energy
    • Middle East
    • Political Economy of the Arab Gulf
    • Presidential Elections
    • Public Finance
    • Religion and Public Policy
    • Science and Technology
    • Space Policy
    • Texas Politics
    • U.S. and Iran
    • U.S. and Mexico
    • See All Experts
    • Experts in the News
  • Support
    • Join the Baker Roundtable
      Join the Baker Roundtable
      Learn more about the Baker Institute’s membership forum, which supports the mission of the institute and offers members exclusive access to experts and events.
      Read More
      RT
    • Major Gifts
      Major Gifts
      Major gifts provide the funds necessary for the Baker Institute to explore new areas of study and research, and expand current programs.
      Read More
      Wallace S. Wilson meeting with former British Prime Minister Tony Blair
    • Endowments
      Endowments
      Endowment gifts provide the Baker Institute with permanent resources that support research programs, fellows and scholars.
      Read More
      Pictured from left are William Martin, Katharine Neill Harris, Ambassador Edward Djerejian, Alfred C. Glassell, III, and Pam Lindberg
    • Planned Giving
      Planned Giving

      Plan a gift that will ensure lasting, meaningful support for policy programs important to you.

       

      Read More
      meeting
    • Corporate Support
      Corporate Support
      Corporations can become involved with the institute in a number of ways and see the benefit from the research conducted by our fellows and scholars.
      Read More
      Wide shot of the Doré Commons during a Shell Distinguished Lecture Series event featuring Wim Thomas
  • About
    • People
      People
      Learn more about the Baker Institute's leadership and get contact information for the administrative staff.
      Read More
      Secretary James A. Baker, III, stands with a portion of the Berlin Wall, outside of Baker Hall
    • Student Opportunities
      Student Opportunities
      Through the internships on campus and beyond, Rice students can explore careers in public policy, or simply become better informed about important issues of the day.
      Read More
      Amb. Edward P. Djerejian speaks with students outside Baker Hall
    • Annual Report
    • Blog
    • Contact
      Contact Us
      Complete a form for event, media or other inquiries, and get directions and parking information for the Baker Institute.
      Read More
      The front of Baker Hall, from across the plaza, with fountain in foreground
  • Contact
  • Research
    • Economics & Finance
      Economics & Finance
      Read More
    • Energy
      Latest Energy Research
      Summary on Latest Energy Research
      Read More
    • Foreign Policy
      Foreign Policy
      Read More
    • Domestic Policy
      Domestic Policy
      Read More
    • Health & Science
      Health & Science
      Read More
    • All Publications
  • Facebook
  • Youtube
  • Twitter
  • Linkedin
  • Economics & Finance
  • Energy
  • Foreign Policy
  • Domestic Policy
  • Health & Science
  • All Publications
Center for Public Finance | Issue Brief

Assessing Recession Risk in a Post-pandemic Economy

January 26, 2023 | Jorge Barro
Covid Graph

Table of Contents

Author(s)

Headshot of Jorge Barro
Jorge Barro
Fellow in Public Finance
Read More

Share this Publication

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Email
  • Linkedin
  • Print This Publication
  • Cite This Publication

    Barro, Jorge. 2023. Assessing Recession Risk in a Post-pandemic Economy. Issue brief no. 01.26.23. Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy, Houston, Texas. https://doi.org/10.25613/V41V-TJ11.

    Copy Citation

Introduction

As the world pivots toward a new normal in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, a strong sense of macroeconomic uncertainty remains. In 2022, a surge in post-pandemic inflation prompted an aggressive monetary contraction by the Federal Reserve. The corresponding rise in the cost of capital, combined with diminishing fiscal stimulus and supply-side constraints, is expected to slow economic growth. How rapidly the economy decelerates could result in either a slow convergence back to trend growth — a so-called “soft landing” — or, in the case of a rapid economic deceleration, a recession.

This issue brief gauges the likelihood of an impending recession by broadly examining both the frequency and nature of recessions throughout U.S. history. Several of the historical events that triggered major recessions exposed the sensitivity of the U.S. economy to certain types of shocks, soliciting policy responses and changes to the regulatory environment that helped insulate the economy against future shocks. This brief discusses these policy responses, posing them as a possible explanation for observed business cycle patterns over time, and evaluates the current state of the economy in light of these insights.

The Cadence of Recessions

Economists and professional forecasters search extensively for leading indicators of recessions. Some research has pointed to certain macroeconomic and financial variables like the unemployment rate, the Treasury yield curve and credit spreads that change course in the months and weeks preceding the start of a recession.[1] In addition to these indicators, historical patterns in the durations of economic expansions — the time elapsed between the end of one recession and the start of the next — suggest that time itself may be a reasonable predictor of recessions.

The National Bureau of Economic Research — the arbiter of U.S. recession identification — has observed 35 recessions since 1854.[2] Recessions have happened for several reasons, including financial market crises, macroeconomic imbalances and other shocks like the COVID-19 pandemic.[3] If we study the history of business cycles, we generally find that expansions have gotten longer or, equivalently, that recessions have become more infrequent. In Figure 1, the top graph orders the duration of every expansion on record, with the expansion beginning in 1855 indexed at 1 and the expansion beginning 2009 indexed at 34. The bottom graph shows the same metric for recession durations. Together, the graphs indicate a pattern of increasing expansion durations and declining recession durations over time. If the trending increase in expansion durations were to continue, the expansion starting in May 2020 would be expected to last nearly nine years. Although this trend has become somewhat more volatile over time, it is at least cause for doubt that a near-term recession three years into an expansion is a foregone conclusion.

Figure 1 — Indexed Expansion Durations (a) and Recession Durations (b)

CPF Barro 012523 Figure1
Source  National Bureau of Economic Research, Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) and author's calculations.
Note  R-squared for (a) is 0.545 and for (b) is 0.174.

 

 

Over time, recession durations have also gotten shorter. Although this relationship is generally weak, each recession has lasted on average approximately 17 days fewer than the previous recession. In other words, this suggests that the economy generally tends to recover faster over time. The combination of longer expansions and shorter recessions indicates a general improvement in the resiliency of the economy against adverse economic impacts.

The Role of Policy

To a large extent, the reduced frequency and duration of recessions highlights the success of past policies that were designed to mitigate or even prevent certain types of macroeconomic shocks. Several features of the U.S. financial system’s regulatory and institutional framework, for example, were designed in response to financial crises. The bank runs that plagued the financial system in the late 19th century and the early 20th century led to the establishment of the Federal Reserve in 1913 and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) in 1933. These institutions served the financial system well until the financial crisis of 2008 exposed further weaknesses in the underlying regulatory environment. The Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act imposed restrictions meant to contain financial institutions’ exposure to aggregate risk and limit speculative activity, making the broader economy more impervious to financial crises.[4]

In the early 1970s, extreme volatility in oil prices created an energy crisis and a corresponding macroeconomic downturn. In response, the U.S. government commissioned the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to dampen energy price volatility and supply disruptions.[5] This measure helped to insulate the U.S. economy from energy price shocks that could lead to recessions. Since the establishment of the SPR, the U.S. has periodically stabilized domestic energy prices, most recently in response to the energy crisis triggered by the Russia-Ukraine war.[6]

COVID-19 highlighted the exposure that the U.S. economy faced regarding pandemic risk. Although this pandemic itself may have been unexpected, a historical account of the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic provides a quantitative precedent for its macroeconomic consequences. Estimates of the 1918 pandemic suggest an average cross-country decline in GDP of around 6%,[7] while the COVID-19 pandemic led to a contraction in the U.S. of around 2% to 3% GDP on an annual basis in 2020.[8] The brevity of the recession in 2020 is due in large part to the fiscal and monetary response, as well as advances in technology that dampened the disruptions to various economic activities. The rapid development of the COVID-19 vaccine and other treatments also played a major role in reducing the macroeconomic consequences of the pandemic. The vaccine’s development started in early 2020, and its delivery began in December of the same year — far exceeding the previous development record of four years.[9] Although the vaccine was developed by private sector institutions, policy and fiscal support created preparedness before the pandemic and ensured an expedited delivery thereafter.[10] Such rapid development, combined with continued research support, indicates that advancements in medicine and technology could dampen future macroeconomic risk resulting from pandemics.

Studying historical monetary policy-tightening cycles, in which the Federal Reserve increases the federal funds target rate, could also provide insights into the likelihood of an impending recession. The literature is somewhat mixed on the probability of recessions following tightening cycles. In particular, there is historical evidence of both a recession happening and not happening following a tightening cycle, although instances of the former exceed the latter.[11] Moreover, it is unclear whether the historical recessions resulted from natural disruptions or from the adverse economic effects of contractionary monetary policy. For example, did the tightening cycle that ended in December 2018 cause the recession of 2020? A monetary contraction could have plausibly made the economy more susceptible to a recession, but it certainly did not cause the COVID-19 pandemic.

Emergent Macroeconomic Risk

Financial Market Risk

While policy responses can mitigate macroeconomic risk corresponding to past events, an ever-changing world will always introduce new risks. For example, recent growth in cryptocurrencies may pose an emerging threat to the stability of the financial system. A significant devaluation of cryptocurrencies in late 2022 and instability in crypto exchanges had a lesser impact on broader financial markets than they may have had otherwise because of their limited interconnection with the traditional financial system.[12] However, growth of the digital asset ecosystem under the current regulatory environment could eventually contribute to broader financial instability, as these assets generally circumvent the very types of regulations that promote financial stability.

In the months after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, a combination of factors, including monetary and fiscal stimulus and a surge in household savings, contributed to a sharp decline in various types of consumer and business loan delinquency rates. Historically, delinquency rates have risen during recessions and have often been a leading indicator of an impending recession. While the delinquency rate on all loans at commercial banks remains low — an optimistic indication of financial stability — delinquency rates on credit card loans have risen steadily from their post-pandemic lows.[13] Whether this indicates a reversion to the pre-pandemic trend or a deterioration of household finances leading to a recession remains uncertain. Some increase in credit card delinquencies, however, could reasonably be expected as a natural consequence of rising interest rates and heightened inflation.

Another recurring risk corresponds to the U.S. government’s method of financing expenditures. The legal limit on federal debt accumulation, commonly known as the debt ceiling, prevents the federal government from servicing expenditures by increasing its outstanding debt. Without raising the debt ceiling to finance ongoing expenditures, the government begins cycling through increasingly severe levels of fiscal austerity. In the extreme case, if the government was unable to service its existing debt obligations, it would be in default. Moreover, failure by the government to sustain existing transfer payments and programs, like Social Security, would disrupt households’ finances, likely exacerbating any financial and macroeconomic distress. Without a historical precedent for this level of default, it is difficult to gauge the extent of the risk, but some findings highlight the risk it presents for a recession.[14] Moreover, the rising possibility of default drives up the credit premium on federal debt and could adversely impact Treasury-based collateral in private debt markets.[15] Federal policymakers can fully mitigate this risk by resolving budgetary disputes through alternative means.

Restructuring Risk

Recessions often bring with them a wave of destruction to specific industries and professions. If this type of destruction leads to a subsequent efficiency improvement through resource reallocation to new and growing industries, it is considered a form of “creative destruction.”[16] These transitions could be the result of changes in consumer preferences or technological advancements that render certain professions and industries obsolete. Employment trends during recessions reveal patterns of disruption that may indicate whether the economy is at risk of another wave of destruction.

Figure 2 ­— Services Share of Total Consumption

CPF Barro 012523 Figure 2
Source  U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, FRED, and author's calculations.
Note  Goods share of consumption equals 100 minus the graphed values.

 

 

Figure 3 — Employment Trends Following Past Recessions

CPF Barro 012523 Figure 3
Source  U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRED, and author's calculations.
Note  Values are indexed to three months before the start of each recession.

 

For several decades, shares of consumer demand steadily shifted from goods toward services, as shown in Figure 2. This trend generally accelerated during nearly every recession before the 2020 recession induced by the pandemic. Goods-producing employment fell in nearly every recession, while service-providing employment usually remained stable or even grew, as shown in Figure 3. One exception was the financial crisis of 2008, which caused job losses in both goods-producing and service-providing employment, largely driven by the decline in the financial services sector. Despite this decline in service-providing employment, relative demand for services rose sharply during the 2008 recession and continued trending upward thereafter.

The recession of 2020 reversed this decades-long trend, as relative demand for services suddenly fell sharply and remained relatively low as a share of total consumption. Goods-producing and service-providing employment both fell during the recession, with the latter reasonably falling by a larger share. Despite the lasting change in consumption composition, however, total employment growth for each group has been nearly identical relative to pre-pandemic levels, as shown in Figure 4. As a result, service-providing employment is likely at higher risk for a restructuring wave, similar to those observed in the past. The recent surge in job losses across nearly every industry, however, creates room for doubt that a restructuring wave is eminent or likely. Moreover, further industrial granularization of employment changes since the post-pandemic recovery fails to clearly indicate significant disruptions.

Figure 4 — Employment Trends Following the 2020 Recession

CPF Barro 012523 Figure 4
Source  U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, FRED, and author's calculations.
Note  Values are indexed to three months before the start of the recession.

 

Other Factors

As the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic began to reach an optimistic turning point in early 2022, global security regressed with the start of the Russia-Ukraine war. Global energy prices soared, sending several regional markets into crisis. The U.S. began withdrawing from the SPR to stabilize domestic prices, limiting the impact of the war on the broader economy. Although the resulting economic risk of supply disruptions in various markets seems contained as of early 2023, global security risk is likely to remain elevated until war tensions subside.[17] Even if the overall likelihood is low, an escalation of the war could have a severe impact on the global economy.

While some factors pose cyclical risks to the U.S. and global economies, others may pose longer-term risks. For example, research indicates that climate change may introduce weather-related risks to the U.S. economy, including instability in the financial sector.[18] In addition, a sharp decline in fertility rates following the pandemic will likely contribute to slowing long-term economic growth and increased financial risk in pay-as-you-go pension programs, such as Social Security, that rely on a stable or growing population.[19] Just as these risks to long-term macroeconomic stability may take several years or decades to materialize, mitigation efforts may also require prolonged periods of implementation and effectiveness.

Conclusion

The COVID-19 pandemic caused a deep and lasting disruption to the U.S. and global economies. Three years later, several macroeconomic values show a convergence to pre-pandemic trends. Based solely on the historical expansion duration trend, a near-term recession seems unlikely. Furthermore, the historical recession duration trend indicates that any recession would likely be short-lived. These observations likely reflect the success of mitigation policies that, over time, have insulated the U.S. economy from various types of shocks. Continued economic disruptions, however, indicate that more research is necessary to predict emergent threats to the economy and to find ways to mitigate their impact. Such efforts could continue the trend of longer periods of economic expansion and shorter, less severe recessions.

Endnotes


[1] Michael T. Kiley, Financial and Macroeconomic Indicators of Recession Risk (Washington, D.C.: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 2022), https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/financial-and-macroeconomic-indicators-of-recession-risk-20220621.html.

[2] “US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions,” National Bureau of Economic Research, last updated July 17, 2021, https://www.nber.org/research/data/us-business-cycle-expansions-and-contractions.

[3] Mark Labonte, What Causes a Recession?, (Washington, D.C.: Congressional Research Service, 2019), https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IN/IN10853.

[4] Baird Webel et al., The Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act: Background and Summary, (Washington, D.C.: Congressional Research Service, 2017), https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R41350/10.

[5] International Energy Agency, United States’ Legislation on Oil Security, July 31, 2020, https://www.iea.org/articles/united-states-legislation-on-oil-security.

[6] “History of SPR Releases,” Office of Petroleum Reserves, U.S. Office of Cybersecurity, Energy Security, and Energy Response, https://www.energy.gov/ceser/office-petroleum-reserves.

[7] Robert J. Barro, José F. Ursúa, and Joanna Weng, “The Coronavirus and the Great Influenza Pandemic:
Lessons from the ‘Spanish Flu’ for the Coronavirus’s Potential Effects on Mortality and Economic Activity,” NBER Working Paper Series 26866, National Bureau of Economic Research, Washington, D.C., April 2020, https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w26866/w26866.pdf.

[8] Bureau of Economic Analysis, “Gross Domestic Product for the U.S. Virgin Islands, 2020,” news release no. BEA 22—07, March 4, 2022, https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/gross-domestic-product-us-virgin-islands-2020.

[9] Phillip Ball, “The Lightning-fast Quest for COVID Vaccines — And What It Means for Other Diseases,” Nature, December 18, 2020, https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03626-1.

[10] Richard G. Frank, Leslie Dach, and Nicole Lurie, “It Was the Government That Produced COVID-19 Vaccine Success,” Health Affairs Blog, May 14, 2021, https://doi.org/10.1377/forefront.20210512.191448.

[11] Kevin L. Kliesen, “A Look at Fed Tightening Episodes Since the 1980s: Part I,” On the Economy (blog), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, April 14, 2022, https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2022/apr/fed-tightening-episodes-since-1980s-part-one.

[12] Financial Stability Oversight Council, 2022 Annual Report, https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/261/FSOC2022AnnualReport.pdf.

[13] Mia Taylor, “Credit Card Delinquencies Are Expected to Spike to Their Highest Level in a Decade—But Americans Are Opening More Credit Cards Than Ever,” Fortune Recommends, December 14, 2022, https://fortune.com/recommends/article/consumer-credit-debt-forecast-2023/.

[14] Eric Engen, Glenn Follette, and Jean-Philippe Laforte, Possible Macroeconomic Effects of a Temporary Federal Debt Default (Washington, D.C.: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 2013), https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20131004memo02.pdf.

[15] U.S. Government Accountability Office, Debt Limit: Market Response to Recent Impasses Underscores Need to Consider Alternative Approaches, GAO-15-476, July 9, 2015, https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-15-476.

[16] Muriel Dal Pont Legrand and Harald Hagemann, “Retrospectives: Do Productive Recessions Show the Recuperative Powers of Capitalism? Schumpeter’s Analysis of the Cleansing Effect,” Journal of Economic Perspectives 31, no. 1 (Winter 2017): 245–256, https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.31.1.245.

[17] Amy J. Nelson and Alexander Montgomery, “How Not to Estimate the Likelihood of Nuclear War,” Order from Chaos (blog), The Brookings Institution, October 19, 2022, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2022/10/19/how-not-to-estimate-the-likelihood-of-nuclear-war/.

[18] Office of Financial Research, “Climate Change Risk,” in Annual Report to Congress 2021, https://www.financialresearch.gov/annual-reports/files/OFR-Annual-Report-2021.pdf#page=95.

[19] Barro, Jorge. 2021. The Macroeconomic Scars of the Pandemic. Issue brief no. 02.25.21. Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, Houston, Texas.

 

 

This material may be quoted or reproduced without prior permission, provided appropriate credit is given to the author and Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy. The views expressed herein are those of the individual author(s), and do not necessarily represent the views of Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy.

©2023 Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy
https://doi.org/10.25613/V41V-TJ11
  • Print This Publication
  • Share
    • Facebook
    • Twitter
    • Email
    • Linkedin

Related Research

Woman Bills
Center for Public Finance | Podcast

Baker Briefing: Consumer Trends in a Post-pandemic Economy

Read More
Budget Graph
Center for Public Finance | Issue Brief

Reflecting on the Budget Control Act of 2011 and Its Relevance Now

Read More
Woman Bills
Center for Public Finance | Issue Brief

Recent U.S. Consumer Trends: Something Old, Something New, Something Borrowed — Should We Be Blue?

Read More
  • Facebook
  • Youtube
  • Twitter
  • Linkedin
  • Donate Now
  • Media Inquiries
  • Membership
  • About the Institute
  • Rice.edu
Contact Us

6100 Main Street
Baker Hall MS-40, Suite 120
Houston, TX 77005

Email: bipp@rice.edu
Phone: 713-348-4683
Fax: 713-348-5993

Baker Institute Newsletter

The email newsletter of Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy provides a snapshot of institute news, research and upcoming events.

Sign Up

  • © Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy
  • Web Accessibility
  • Privacy Policy