Is the U.S. headed for a recession? History tells us a near-term recession is unlikely — but emergent threats like unregulated crypto exchanges and U.S. debt servicing necessitate further measures to mitigate economic risk, writes public finance fellow Jorge Barro.
How much can demographic changes account for trends in the U.S. economy? This paper shows that a heterogeneous-agent, overlapping-generations model with historical demographic flows can generate several features of the U.S. economy over the past several decades, including a secular decline in economic growth, a rise in savings relative to GDP, a corresponding decline in real interest rates, and, in part, changes in wealth inequality.
Information and cyber action have been important but ancillary components of the Ukraine war since its outbreak on February 24, 2022. We offer a set of observations:
Christopher Bronk, Gabriel Collins, Dan WallachSeptember 6, 2022
In this issue brief, public finance fellow Jorge Barro finds that lower state income taxation is associated with higher net taxpayer migration. Further, Barro explains that since the passage of the 2017 tax reform, taxpayers and earnings potential have both migrated to lower-taxing states at a faster rate.
In this brief, public finance fellow Jorge Barro explains some of the long-term economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and argues that policymakers can prepare for the impending macroeconomic shortfalls by maintaining a commitment to improving education, prioritizing immigration and resolving fiscal imbalances.
While recent headlines announce that President Biden's proposed budget will drive the national debt past WWII levels, fellow Jorge Barro explained in November 2020 that a projected surge will be very different from the 1940s.
Public finance fellow Jorge Barro analyzes Federal Reserve survey data released in September 2020 that shows that U.S. wealth inequality has declined for the first time in 30 years.
Given that policymakers will eventually need to decide how to resolve the social security program’s projected shortfall, this paper presents a simulation-based approach to evaluating the conventional alternatives of adjustments to benefits or taxes.