Gabriel Collins, “China’s Strait of Hormuz Oil Security and Escalation Playbook,” Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, May 6, 2026, https://doi.org/10.25613/D8KB-H554.
China faces a roughly 4–5 million barrels per day (bpd) deficit on Gulf-origin crude (sensitivity range: 3.6–5.4 million bpd), created by Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. counter-blockade of Iranian ports. Ukrainian DeepStrike damage to Russian export infrastructure exacerbates supply pressure. China’s crude oil stockpiles of roughly 1.4 billion barrels nominally cover 120 days of imports but in practice likely yield closer to 60–90 days of working time before refiners would cut runs to protect minimum stocks. The runway extends from now to roughly mid-July, and because tanker transit from the Gulf to East Asia takes about three weeks, some decisions will need to be made sooner.
Beijing’s responses will be governed by a four-part priority hierarchy: 1) regime survival, 2) avoidance of a U.S.-China military action, 3) strategic concessions on Taiwan, semiconductors, and trade, and 4) Iran’s survival as a partner.
These priorities are largely shaped by four inflection points:
This working paper catalogs 39 discrete options across diplomatic, supply-side, demand-side, maritime logistics, economic counter-pressure, and kinetic counter-pressure categories, ordered by escalation risk and feasible response time.
The upcoming Xi-Trump summit on May 14–15, 2026, is a less valuable lever than it appears: The natural trade — Hormuz de-escalation in exchange for Washington pressing Kyiv to pause strikes on Russian oil infrastructure — is likely nonviable given current U.S. positioning on Ukraine. With that linkage unavailable, Beijing’s most strategically sophisticated path may well be the least confrontational one: absorb the blockade with restraint; accelerate de-oiling and supply diversification at home; harden Russian energy infrastructure quietly; and allow Washington to continue financing its third prolonged Middle East engagement of the past 25 years.
This “do less, harder” posture preserves optionality for China, compounds U.S. costs faster than Chinese ones, and avoids handing the United States a distant-escalation moment that would restore perceptions of American primacy in the way the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro largely did. The coming weeks will determine whether Beijing chooses this path or escalates.
View the full paper (PDF).
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