To access the full paper, download the PDF here or on the left-hand sidebar. 

A related PowerPoint presentation on "Gas Geoeconomics Essential to Win the 'Long War' in Ukraine — and Asia" is here.

Executive Summary

• Gas geoeconomics is an essential prerequisite for victory over Russia in Ukraine and US credibility in Asia—and should be one of Washington’s top national security priorities.
• Russia’s invasion of Ukraine credibly reflects its desire to reestablish a Moscow-centric imperium through force of arms, potentially along the approximate territorial parameters of the mid-19th century Russian Empire in Europe.
• Rolling back the Kremlin’s existing war of conquest and deterring future depredations will require a level of NATO defense-industrial mobilization not seen since the 1980s. Present sanctions, even if deepened, cannot compensate for NATO’s undersized munitions stockpiles and insufficient ability to recapitalize forces and potentially replace combat losses in a timely manner—elements that are critical for deterrence.
• Energy insecurity will, over time, corrode the economic and political foundations needed to sustain this urgent defense-industrial mobilization. Russia recognizes the seams and is intensifying its unprecedented efforts dating from early 2021 to use gas as an instrument to coerce and destabilize prime customers in Western Europe. Unless Europe adopts a proactive war footing through gas security policies, “General Time” will be on Russia’s side.
• EU/NATO member states can build in resilience through policies that embrace gas geoeconomics. These would facilitate physical supply fungibility via expanded pipeline linkages within Europe and increased seaborne liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies. Gas geoeconomics would also aim to reform markets where needed and reset the investment environment by clearly communicating to the global gas value chain that gas has a 25-year forward time horizon on the continent given its scale, superior emissions profile, capacity to yield hydrogen, and ability to facilitate wind and solar expansion.
• Public capital investments in gas geoeconomics by NATO member states, approximating the roughly $25 billion in military assistance pledged to Ukraine thus far, would powerfully accelerate gas supply diversification efforts and would likely unlock a substantially larger amount of private capital.

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