To access the full working paper, download the PDF on the left-hand sidebar.

Summary

Proactive U.S. efforts to enhance Europe’s gas security and blunt Russia’s ability to use gas for hybrid warfare would directly support its ability to sustain and upgrade its combat credibility in East and Southeast Asia. By incentivizing upstream gas investments globally through the demand call associated with a broader European move to replace Russian gas with LNG, gas geoeconomics would over the medium term also help increase global LNG supply to the ultimate benefit of U.S. allies in Asia, foremost among them Japan and South Korea. Meanwhile, the sooner Europe can end purchases of Russian gas, the sooner the Kremlin faces a decision between effectively exiting the global gas market or else spending tens of billions to build more gas pipelines to China—obligating financial resources that would otherwise be used to rebuild Russia’s military. Gas geoeconomics is an essential prerequisite for victory in Ukraine, U.S. credibility in Asia, and should be one of Washington’s top national security priorities.