Author(s)
This brief is part of “Election 2024: Policy Playbook,” a series by the Baker Institute and Rice University that offers nonpartisan, expert analysis and recommendations to equip policy leaders governing the United States and Texas in 2025.
The Big Picture
- Members of Congress recently proposed federal legislation requiring the Texas electrical grid to connect to the Eastern and Western Interconnections.
- While the purported goal of the “Connect the Grid Act” is to increase the reliability of the Texas grid, the reasoning behind this bill ignores key issues at play.
- Connecting the Texas grid offers opportunities to access and sell more power, but the costs and benefits are not yet well understood.
- Policymakers should shift their focus from integrating the Texas grid to funding a pragmatic, comprehensive study of the technical, environmental, economic, social, geographic, and regulatory issues at stake.
Summarizing the Issue
In 2021, following Winter Storm Uri and Electric Reliability Council of Texas’ (ERCOT) mandatory curtailment of power delivery, many people attributed the state’s electricity woes to the lack of significant links to the eastern and western power systems, as shown in Figure 1.
Figure 1 — Interconnected Power Systems of North America
In response, members of Congress recently proposed federal legislation, titled “Connect the Grid Act,” which would require the Texas Interconnection (also known as ERCOT) to connect to giant adjacent systems more fully — as all major grids are already connected via small, direct-current links.
On the surface, this sounds like a simple fix: throw in a few power lines, fire them up, and all will be well. However, the reasoning behind the call for linking Texas to the other grids does not encompass the full range of issues at play. Joining the Texas grid with others would not address most causes of the outages, and building and operating new connections is neither simple nor quick. If completed, Texas may be sending electricity to other states during a future power shortfall, rather than the other way around.
Demand Is on the Rise
The Texas grid’s future reliability is a real issue, especially since demand for electricity in the state is increasing.
Figure 2 — ERCOT Long-Term Load Forecast to 2030
Impact of Renewables
The growing inclusion of renewable energy sources on the Texas grid causes at least two major challenges for stable operations:
- Intermittency: Energy sources, such as solar and wind, may not be available when they are most needed.
- Technical efficacy: Renewables connect to the grid in ways that are fundamentally different from the spinning turbines of the 20th century. In addition, many power customers are now power producers.
These changes and others will challenge traditional approaches to reliable operations, and, as already learned, severe weather will further upset ERCOT’s ability to deliver usable electricity whenever and wherever needed.
While connecting the Texas grid to others clearly offers opportunities to access more power from further away — and, importantly, also allows Texas to send power to others — this step would not significantly address the reliability problems within the state as described above and may even exacerbate them.
Expert Analysis
Past efforts to interconnect large grids offer insights worth revisiting. In 1967, engineers activated links that allowed the giant Eastern and Western Interconnections to operate in synchrony. For the first time, electrons generated in California could, theoretically, illuminate a lamp in New York. However, the system operators quickly learned that it was nearly impossible to keep the two systems in synchrony and abandoned the plan eight years later.
A similar, but unauthorized, attempt to connect the Texas grid to the Eastern Interconnection in 1976 also displayed instability.
Other studies that followed considered various aspects of the issue, from economics to energy efficiency to reliability. In 2002, for example, the Department of Energy noted that prior investigations of linking Texas to the Eastern Interconnection were inconclusive and called for new investigations. Today one might ask:
- Should new links be direct-current lines — which might avoid federal regulation — or should alternating-current lines be used, which may be more cost-effective?
- How would connections affect the stability of the Texas grid? Where should they be located?
- Would landowners welcome the new energy infrastructure? What will it cost, and who will pay?
- Which power producers would potentially benefit most — wind, solar, or natural gas?
- What might be the environmental effects, both positive and negative, of developing these links?
- How long would it take to design the connections and obtain approvals from all state and federal regulators?
- If ever built, would the new links, with the resulting revisions in ERCOT and other markets, ultimately bring greater reliability benefits to Texans or to customers elsewhere?
It is very important to note here that none of the earlier studies comprehensively addressed the full range of benefits and costs of linking Texas to the other systems and that all three grids — East, West, and Texas — do share modest amounts of power over small, direct-current links.
Other Perspectives
Recently, scholars at MIT assessed how an interconnected Texas grid might perform under conditions like Winter Storm Uri. They concluded that new links might ensure enough power for Texans during the theoretical storm. But, in their assumptions, they failed to consider ways in which Texas has already addressed other factors that contributed to the 2021 power outages. These changes would likely increase the availability of in-state generating resources during future weather events and might even result in other states acquiring power from Texas during a Uri-type storm.
In a different vein, Texas A&M engineers reported that new technologies could facilitate interconnecting the Eastern and Western Interconnections with sufficient stability. They did not, however, consider links to the Texas grid.
These are simply two examples of recent work assessing pathways forward for strengthening power systems in North America and in Texas.
Policy Outlook
Legislation to link Texas to the other grids has been proposed at the federal level and may be discussed in committee during the next session of Congress. With recent weather events and power outages in Texas, the next state legislature will likely take up ideas for changing the structure, oversight, and operation of the Texas grid. At the same time, regulators will continue to produce forecasts and plans that affect grid reliability. The isolated Texas grid will not escape notice.
For incoming policymakers, it is time to slow the call for building connections between the grids and instead shift the focus to funding a pragmatic, comprehensive study of the technical, environmental, economic, social, geographic, and regulatory issues at stake. Only then will it be clear if new connections can help keep the lights on in Texas.
The Bottom Line
For individuals running for federal, state, and local office in 2024, there is no question that the reliability of the Texas grid is at stake. It is the heartbeat of Texas’ economy, and there are very real concerns about what its future holds.
Similarly, past reasons for operating an isolated grid — primarily for economic, regulatory, and technical efficacy — may no longer hold going forward. A thorough investigation of what new, strong links to the Eastern Interconnection, the Western Interconnection, or both could mean for Texas is warranted.
This material may be quoted or reproduced without prior permission, provided appropriate credit is given to the author and Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy. The views expressed herein are those of the individual author(s), and do not necessarily represent the views of Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy.
