The Baker Institute Energy Forum and Harvard University"s John F. Kennedy School of Government are convening the first in a series of workshops examining the changing geopolitics of natural gas. This first workshop will include presentations by regional experts on internal politics and their impact on natural resource development in China, Iraq, Iran, Venezuela, Bolivia, Russia and Turkmenistan.
The workshop is part of a new research program that will study the market consequences of rising supplies of natural gas from shale and other unconventional resources and the associated geopolitical and market implications under a wide range of scenarios, including assessment of the influence of these unconventional resources on largely untapped resources in Iraq, Iran, Turkmenistan and Russia, as well as the emergence of growing demands in China and India. The study will also consider internal political developments inside major natural gas producing countries and the impact of those influences on the pace of new resource development.
The purpose of this first workshop is to present the preliminary modeling approach and results and to discuss the geopolitical developments that need to be considered in developing a base case for peer review and discussion.
Topics to be discussed will include:
- Economic modeling approaches for analyzing the effect of unconventional resources development;
- Influence of internal political developments on resource development in Iraq, Iran, China, Venezuela, Bolivia, Russia and Turkmenistan.
9:00 am Introduction to the Study
Amy Myers Jaffe, Wallace S. Wilson Fellow in Energy Studies, Baker Institute
9:15 am "Political Developments and Unconventional Gas in China"
Steven W. Lewis, Ph.D., C.V. Starr Transnational China Fellow, Baker Institute
9:45 am "FSU: Natural Gas Developments in Turkmenistan and Russia"
Martha Brill Olcott, Ph.D., Senior Associate, Russia and Eurasia Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
10:15 am Coffee Break
10:30 am "Iraqi Politics and Implications for Oil and Gas"
Meghan O'Sullivan, Ph.D., Jeane Kirkpatrick Professor of the Practice of International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School
11:00 am "Iran Country Outlook"
Suzanne Maloney, Ph.D., Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Saban Center for Middle East Policy, The Brookings Institution
11:30 am "Resource Nationalism and Natural Gas: Venezuela and Bolivia Country Outlooks"
David R. Mares, Ph.D., Baker Institute Scholar for Latin American Energy Studies, Baker Institute
Noon "Economic Modeling Framework"
Kenneth B. Medlock III, Ph.D., James A. Baker, III, and Susan G. Baker Fellow in Energy and Resource Economics, Baker Institute
1:15 pm "Gas and Oil Cartels: A Game-theoretic Analysis"
Songying Fang, Ph.D., Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Rice University