Gabriel Collins, “Energy Stockpiling as a China Strategic Warning Indicator” (Houston: Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, June 20, 2024).
This testimony was delivered at the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission Hearing on "China’s Stockpiling and Mobilization Measures for Competition and Conflict" on June 13, 2024.
Energy production and storage trends are an important signal that a country may be preparing to engage in warfare. Such data often hide in plain sight. Pinpointing “where to look, how to look at it, and how to assess what we see” is therefore critical. This analysis looks through the lens of “how might a war initiator prepare its energy system and stockpile energy goods in advance of kinetic conflict or activities that materially raise the risk of kinetic war?” It seeks to identify energy stockpiling activities that offer the most reliable strategic warning indicators and how those might be tracked.
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