Justin Alexander, “Gulf States Retain Advantages in the AI Race Despite War,” Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, April 10, 2026, https://doi.org/10.25613/R1M9-BP82.
This paper was initially completed in late February 2026, presenting a broadly optimistic view that the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are well-positioned to play a major role in the development and implementation of artificial intelligence (AI). The Gulf states were quick to recognize the importance of AI, and their ambitions are already visible in large-scale initiatives by state-backed entities, particularly in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, and Qatar. This paper provides a structured assessment of the actions and investments related to AI that have been taken by the Gulf states over the last few years and provides an analytical framework for understanding their structural advantages and assessing their next steps. Their potential in AI is based on interlocking enablers that include committed political leadership, vast capital reserves, abundant low-cost electricity, access to talent, strategic geographic connectivity, conducive business environments, and diversified international partnerships.
These enablers are underpinned by the deep structural relevance of AI for the region’s own economy, with anticipated impacts that are more clearly net positive than is the case for most countries globally. This is because AI can support a shift away from low-skilled expatriate labor and enhance efficiency across the public and private sectors. Data centers also underpin demand for the region’s energy production.
The perspective presented in the original draft of this paper was complicated by the launch of joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, which has resulted in Iranian retaliation against U.S.-operated data centers in the region, amongst many other targets. Although the impact of the war is clouding the economic outlook in the GCC, including in various ways relevant to AI, the region is still expected to remain a prominent actor in the sector. The final section of the paper assesses the new challenges resulting from the war and ways of mitigating them.
View the full paper (PDF).
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