The most likely future for NAFTA is neither continuity — that is off the table as per U.S. goals — nor a “modernized” agreement that the U.S. does not appear to want.
As China’s demand for light oil products continues to drive incremental consumption growth, it is becoming apparent that commodities framed as “oil products” are increasingly not actually made from crude oil. Fellow Gabriel Collins explores the possible ramifications of this situation in this issue brief. He writes that oil producers — whether in Riyadh, Moscow or the Permian Basin — should take stock of how China’s growing use of “oil products” that do not actually come from crude oil may translate into effective reductions in demand and prices for the crude oil they produce.
This brief quantifies the potential exposure of key European countries to Russian gas price and supply manipulation, shows how Moscow has used energy as an instrument of coercive diplomacy since the early 1990s, and briefly assesses the impacts and future policy implications of Russian entities’ past use of the “energy weapon” in and near Europe.
Although it has not been widely successful to date in the former Soviet zone, Russia's use of the energy weapon against Western European countries in various forms still constitutes a strategic threat that warrants close attention from policymakers in Washington and throughout Europe, writes fellow Gabriel Collins.
To gain public support for Mexico’s energy reforms, the government promised a future of low gas prices. The author documents the fallout when gas prices instead shot up 20 percent.
The extent of fuel theft from pipelines in Mexico is now so great that it is becoming a serious financial burden for state-owned petroleum company Pemex and, more broadly, may pose a challenge to the implementation of policies designed to liberalize Mexico's gasoline market, writes postdoctoral fellow Adrian Duhalt.
A universally agreed-upon definition of the U.S.-Mexico border region is elusive, to say the least. The boundaries vary widely depending on the government entity or academic institution involved. This brief reviews the many officially sanctioned definitions of the region, and explains why a consensus is necessary for effective border management.
OPEC may opt to continue or deepen its oil production cuts at its upcoming May meeting, as a growing number of highly efficient U.S. shale operators now appears able to maintain oil production — and even expand it — at prices that likely are unsustainably low for many major exporters’ national budgets, writes energy fellow Gabriel Collins.
Brazil's economy is among those most closed to foreign trade. Debate on trade policy has returned to the political agenda, but domestic and international circumstances do not currently favor reform. This brief discusses the outlook for trade policy reform in Brazil during President Michel Temer's term and the challenges that will be faced by any succeeding government.