The Geopolitics of Natural Gas: From Today to 2030

The Energy Forum of the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy and the Stanford Program on Energy and Sustainability unveiled at this conference its new study on the geopolitical consequences of a major shift to natural gas in world energy markets. The study includes an innovative World Gas Trade Model (WGTM) and detailed historical political case studies of major gas infrastructure projects.

World gas consumption is projected to increase more than two-fold by 2030. Plentiful reserves exist-but the needed gas supplies are far removed from demand centers. Major expansion of international gas trade infrastructures will be critical, with ensuing impacts on global energy geopolitics.

Topics of discussion include: geopolitics of gas: today to 2030; Rice University's World Gas Trade Model; the politics and economics of new major gas export projects; the changing structure of the world gas market; political and institutional consequences of major gas investments; security of gas supply; and, the Forum for Gas Producing Countries.

This study and conference was generously sponsored by Baker Botts LLP, BP, EPRI, The Honorable & Mrs. Hushang Ansary as well as Baker Institute Energy Forum Members: Anadarko Petroleum, Apache Corporation, Aramco Services, Baker Botts LLP, Baker Hughes, BP, ChevronTexaco, ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil, Halliburton, Kuwait Petroleum, Marathon, Mission Resources, Noble Drilling, Petroleum Energy Center of Japan, Qatar Petroleum, Schlumberger, Shell, Shell Exploration & Production Co., The Honorable & Mrs. Hushang Ansary, and Wallace S. Wilson.

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Event Agenda and Presentations

Wednesday, May 26, 2004

8:30 am Introduction and Welcome Remarks

Welcome by Secretary James A. Baker, III, Honorary Chair, Baker Institute

"Gas Exports from the Gulf: The Perspective of a Major Player"
H.E. Abdullah bin Hamad Al-Attiyah, Minister of Energy and Industry, The State of Qatar

Opening Keynote

"Geopolitics of Gas: Supply Diversification and Security of Supply"
James Mulva, President and CEO, ConocoPhillips

9:30 am Opening Plenary Session

"Importance of Analyzing Future Gas Markets"
Ambassador Edward P. Djerejian, Director, Baker Institute

Keynote Addresses

"The Geo-Politics of Gas - Priorities for the Gas Economy"
Peter Hughes, Vice President, Strategy and Planning, BP Gas, Power and Renewables

Philip Dingle, President, ExxonMobil Gas & Power Marketing Company

"LNG in Japan and Asia: History and Current Issues"
Tomiyuki Kudo, President, Petroleum Energy Center of Japan

11:20 am Presentation of Study Conclusions

"Gas Geopolitics through 2030"
Amy Myers Jaffe, Wallace Wilson Fellow for Energy Studies, Rice University
David Victor, Director, Program on Energy and Sustainable Development, Stanford University

Noon Luncheon

Keynote Address by H. E. Dr. Chakib Khelil, Minister of Energy & Mines, People's Democratic Republic of Algeria

1:45 pm Session A: The Politics and Economics of New Major Gas Export Projects

Session Chair: Robert Card, President, Card Group LLC

Case Study Presentation - "Gas by Pipeline from Russia to Europe"
David Victor, Director, Program on Energy and Sustainable Development, Stanford University
Nadejda Victor, Research Fellow, Program on Energy and Sustainable Development, Stanford University

Case Study Presentation - "Gas as LNG from Trinidad and Tobago to the U.S."
James Ball, President and Chief Mentor, Gas Strategies Consulting Ltd. and EconoMatters Ltd.
Rob Shepard, Senior Associate Consultant, Gas Strategies Consulting Ltd.

Study Presentation - "World Gas Trade Model (WGTM); Forecasts of Major Suppliers"
Peter Hartley, Chairman, Department of Economics, Rice University
Kenneth Medlock III, Consultant and Visiting Professor, Department of Economics, Rice University
Jill Elise Nesbitt, Graduate Student, Economics, Rice University

Expert Panel:

Peter Hughes, Vice President, Strategy and Planning, BP Gas, Power and Renewables

"Key Policy and Political Issues Facing LNG Project Development"
Bruce Kiely, Attorney, Baker Botts LLP

John Hritcko, Jr., Vice President, Strategy & Development, Shell US Gas & Power Company

4:00 pm Session B: Market Shocks and Gas Supply Security
Session Chair: Larry Rosenblatt, Projects Interface Manager-Qatar Projects, ExxonMobil Development Company

Study Presentation - "A Gas Suppliers' Cartel?"
Amy Myers Jaffe, Wallace Wilson Fellow for Energy Studies, Rice University
Ronald Soligo, Professor, Department of Economics, Rice University

Case Study Presentation - "Exports from Turkmenistan to Russia and Europe"
Martha Olcott, Senior Associate, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Expert Panel:

Mark R. Maddox, Acting Assistant Secretary, Office of Fossil Energy, U.S. Department of Energy
Sara Banaszak, Director, Gas and Power Group, PFC Energy

5:45 pm Cocktail Reception

Thursday, May 27, 2004

9:00 am Overview of Day One; Preview of Day Two
Amy Myers Jaffe, Wallace Wilson Fellow for Energy Studies, Rice University
David Victor, Director, Program on Energy and Sustainable Development, Stanford University

9:15 am Session C: The Changing Structure of the World Gas Market
Session Chair Philippe van Marcke de Lummen, Special Advisor to the President of General Management, Energy Division of SUEZ, Tractebel S.A. and Chairman, Tractebel LNG Trading S.A.

Case Study Presentation - "Gas Across the Mediterranean from Algeria to Italy"
Mark Hayes, Research Fellow, Program on Energy and Sustainable Development, Stanford University

Case Study Presentation - "Gas as LNG from Trinidad and Tobago to the U.S." (Part 2)

James Ball, President and Chief Mentor, Gas Strategies Consulting Ltd. and EconoMatters Ltd.
Rob Shepard, Senior Associate Consultant, Gas Strategies Consulting Ltd.

Study Presentation - "World Gas Trade Model; Alternative Political Scenarios"
Peter Hartley, Chairman, Department of Economics, Rice University
Kenneth Medlock III, Consultant and Visiting Professor, Department of Economics, Rice University
Jill Elise Nesbitt, Graduate Student, Economics, Rice University

Expert Panel:

"Developments in LNG and Pipeline"
Amos Avidan, Principal Vice President and Manager, Petroleum and Chemicals Technologies, Bechtel Corporation

"The Changing Structure of World Gas Markets: Natural Gas Trade and Its Benefits"
William Hauhe, Manager, Global LNG Market Development, ChevronTexaco Global Gas

"The Future Structure of Global Gas Markets"
Ira Joseph, Director, International Gas, PIRA Energy

"Economics and Politics of a Global Gas Business"
Steven J. Lowden, Senior Vice President, Business Development/Integrated Gas, Marathon Oil Company

Noon Luncheon Keynote Address

"Natural Gas in Mexico"
Congressman Francisco Xavier Salazar Diez de Sollano, Chairman, Energy Commission, Mexican Chamber of Deputies

1:45 pm Session D: Political and Institutional Consequences of Major Gas Investments
Session Chair: James J. Barnes, Bonner Means Baker Research Fellow, James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy, Rice University

Case Study Presentation - "LNG exports from Arun to Japan"
Steven Lewis, Senior Research Fellow in Asian Politics & Economy, Rice University
Fred R. von der Mehden, Professor Emeritus, Department of Political Science, Rice University

Case Study Presentation - "Gas trade in South America"
David Mares, Professor of Political Science and International Relations, UCSD

Expert Panel:

"Natural Gas Supply and Demand"
Assheton L. S. Carter, Director of Energy and Mining, Center for Environmental Leadership in Business

"(Mis)-Governance and the Resource Abundance: Risks and Responsibilities"
Thomas Heller, Lewis Talbot & Nadine Hearn Shelton Professor of International Legal Studies, Stanford Law School and Senior Fellow, Stanford Institute for International Studies, Stanford University

"Political and Institutional Consequences of Major Gas Investment"
Mourad Belguedj, Principal Energy Specialist, Oil & Gas Policy Division, World Bank

4:00 pm Closing Plenary Session: Geopolitics and the Gas Business
Amy Myers Jaffe, Wallace Wilson Fellow for Energy Studies, Rice University
David Victor, Director, Program on Energy and Sustainable Development, Stanford University

Expert Panel:

James Jensen, President, Jensen Associates
Edward L. Morse, Executive Advisor, Hess Energy Trading Co., LLC (HETCO)

5:30 pm Conference Close

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