Roberto Durán-Fernández, “North America’s Geopolitical and Economic Playbook Under Trump’s Second Term,” Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy, January 17, 2025, https://doi.org/10.25613/P5ZR-XW05.
This paper argues that the U.S.’s turn toward protectionism and economic nationalism reflects a deeper strategic agenda to preserve its global dominance in an increasingly fragmented global order. While globalization delivers economic benefits, these gains are increasingly interpreted through the lens of geopolitical imperatives such as technological supremacy and containing China. The same is true of his border security policy. Drawing on classical geopolitical theories, the analysis reveals how U.S. policies under the second administration of President Trump (Trump 47) are likely to reshape North American integration, weaponize economic tools, and accelerate the shift from cooperative globalization to zero-sum competition. As the U.S. recalibrates its role, this paper challenges policymakers in Canada and Mexico to navigate an emerging paradigm where a new kind of pragmatism dictates U.S. actions.
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