What the Numbers Say (and Miss) About Trump’s Economy

“The US economy is stagnant. It could go one of two directions: It could either fall off the cliff, and we could continue to see a slowing economy, which we've been seeing the last eight months, or we're at a turning point, and it could start to turn up. 

“And there are reasons, actually, to believe both of those stories. What makes it hard to distinguish and pick one is the level of uncertainty in the economy and the lack of data — good, hard government data that we've come to know and trust, that we know how it’s collected, where it's collected from, and can compare it to similar data that we had in the past.”

— John W. Diamond, Ph.D., Director, Center for Tax and Budget Policy

About the Episode

A year into the second Trump administration, what does the latest data tell us about the U.S. economy, which the president touted in a primetime address last month? And what can the numbers tell us, given changes in how economic data is collected following the government shutdown?

John W. Diamond, director of the Center for Tax and Budget Policy and host of “The Two-Handed Economist,” joined the podcast to discuss the latest on inflation and the labor market, the impact of tariffs, and what consumers and investors can expect in 2026.

This conversation was recorded on Dec. 16, 2025.

Listen and subscribe to “Baker Briefing” on Apple, Spotify, or your preferred podcast platform. Learn more about Diamond’s podcast here.

About ‘Baker Briefing’

Hosted by David M. Satterfield,  the “Baker Briefing” podcast delivers timely analysis on breaking policy developments and other critical policy issues of the day in conversations with experts at the Baker Institute. New episodes are released weekly.

Select episodes of “Baker Briefing” are recorded in front of a live audience at Rice University in Houston, Texas. These recordings are free and open to the public. To learn about upcoming recordings and other public programming from the Baker Institute, subscribe to our “Events Digest” newsletter, delivered weekly.

This material may be quoted or reproduced without prior permission, provided appropriate credit is given to the author(s) and Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy. The views expressed herein are those of the individual author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy.