Last month, President Donald Trump’s massive tax bill passed the Republican-led House in a 215-214 vote. The White House has said the bill won’t add to the federal deficit, while the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office projects that the bill would add to the debt by approximately $2.3 trillion from 2025 to 2034. Who’s right?
John W. Diamond reviews the numbers and explains why the tax bill, as written, can’t increase growth enough to offset its trillions in revenue declines, plus why ongoing uncertainty regarding Trump’s tariff policy will only further reduce economic growth.
This conversation was recorded on June 3, 2025. A transcript is available here.
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“The Two-Handed Economist” delivers timely analysis of economic news from John Diamond, director of the Baker Institute Center for Tax and Budget Policy. Each week, John dives deep into the latest policy developments — mostly at the federal level, but with insights now and again into Texas and Houston finance as well.
Why a two-handed economist, you might ask? President Harry Truman famously asked for a one-handed economist, tired of hearing, “On the one hand, this,” and “On the other hand, that.” John embraces the complexity that a one-handed economist might shy away from, explaining how it all adds up for consumers, businesses, and policymakers.
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