The Israel-Iran Conflict and Oil Market Uncertainty

About the Episode

Conflict in the Middle East is shaking the global oil market. In this episode of “The Energy Forum,” Abhi Rajendran, a nonresident fellow at the Baker Institute Center for Energy Studies and director of research and advisory at Energy Intelligence, speaks with Skip York, a Center for Energy Studies nonresident fellow and expert in global market dynamics and upstream strategy, about how escalating geopolitical risk has elevated concerns about global oil supply and is driving oil price volatility. Together, they discuss this and more to facilitate a better understanding of a very dynamic market.

Topics include:

• What recent Israel-Iran escalations mean for global oil flows.
• How markets are pricing risk and uncertainty.
• OPEC+ policy moves and whether more barrels will materialize.
• Why U.S. shale supply may have plateaued.
• The evolving shape of China’s oil demand.
• What oil prices might look like in late 2025 and into 2026.

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This episode was recorded on June 16, 2025. Subscribe and listen to “The Energy Forum” on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts.

About ‘The Energy Forum’

Hosted by experts at the Baker Institute Center for Energy Studies, “The Energy Forum” podcast brings together policymakers, researchers, and industry leaders to explore key topics in energy and sustainability.

This material may be quoted or reproduced without prior permission, provided appropriate credit is given to the author and Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy. The views expressed herein are those of the individual author(s), and do not necessarily represent the views of Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy.