Research Library

The most likely future for NAFTA is neither continuity — that is off the table as per U.S. goals — nor a “modernized” agreement that the U.S. does not appear to want.

As China’s demand for light oil products continues to drive incremental consumption growth, it is becoming apparent that commodities framed as “oil products” are increasingly not actually made from crude oil. Fellow Gabriel Collins explores the possible ramifications of this situation in this issue brief. He writes that oil producers — whether in Riyadh, Moscow or the Permian Basin — should take stock of how China’s growing use of “oil products” that do not actually come from crude oil may translate into effective reductions in demand and prices for the crude oil they produce.

This brief quantifies the potential exposure of key European countries to Russian gas price and supply manipulation, shows how Moscow has used energy as an instrument of coercive diplomacy since the early 1990s, and briefly assesses the impacts and future policy implications of Russian entities’ past use of the “energy weapon” in and near Europe. Although it has not been widely successful to date in the former Soviet zone, Russia's use of the energy weapon against Western European countries in various forms still constitutes a strategic threat that warrants close attention from policymakers in Washington and throughout Europe, writes fellow Gabriel Collins.

To gain public support for Mexico’s energy reforms, the government promised a future of low gas prices. The author documents the fallout when gas prices instead shot up 20 percent. 

A universally agreed-upon definition of the U.S.-Mexico border region is elusive, to say the least. The boundaries vary widely depending on the government entity or academic institution involved. This brief reviews the many officially sanctioned definitions of the region, and explains why a consensus is necessary for effective border management.

OPEC may opt to continue or deepen its oil production cuts at its upcoming May meeting, as a growing number of highly efficient U.S. shale operators now appears able to maintain oil production — and even expand it — at prices that likely are unsustainably low for many major exporters’ national budgets, writes energy fellow Gabriel Collins.

Since early 2014, Brazil has been in the midst of a political and economic crisis characterized by the impeachment of former President Dilma Rousseff, steadily worsening economic conditions, and an investigation into widespread corruption within the government and Petrobras, the state-owned oil company. Experts from the Latin America Initiative analyze different aspects of the current situation in the issue briefs listed below.

Since the first quarter of 2014, Brazil has been living in crisis mode as the result of a severe economic crisis in conjunction with an investigation into widespread corruption that has penetrated the highest offices in the government. Although the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff in 2016 did offer some hope for recovery, recent events demonstrate that Brazil's troubles are still ongoing. Contributing expert Sergio Fausto analyzes the main factors leading to this crisis and surveys the current economic and political situation.

State regulators and legislators — not federal courts — should get first crack at resolving problems arising from seismic activity related to wastewater injection. Fellow Gabriel Collins explains.

Japan's once-booming economy has been somnolent, mainly as a result of deflation and decreased productivity. This issue brief discusses Abenomics — the country's strategy for achieving economic growth — and the headwinds created by the demographic forces of aging in Japan.