On the last Sunday of the first half of the year, Argentina closed the books on the provincial elections in five of its seven provinces with significant petroleum and/or natural gas production and reserves. In Argentina, which like the United States is a federal republic, the 23 provincial governments are pivotal actors in the energy sector, exercising a profound impact on the energy industry across a wide range of dimensions. In the aftermath of these elections we now know which five individuals will be assuming office as governor for a four-year term on December 10.
The first phase of the provincial election season began on April 19 in the northern province of Salta, continued with the April 26 contest in Neuquén, and culminated in June with elections in Mendoza, Río Negro and Tierra del Fuego. The elections in Argentina’s other two petro-provinces, Chubut and Santa Cruz, will take place concurrently with the country’s presidential and congressional elections on October 25. The five provincial elections held over the past three months resulted in the election of pro-government, opposition and neutral gubernatorial candidates. A majority of these five governors-elect in turn are likely to have noticeably different relations with the national government depending upon which of the three viable presidential candidates is victorious later this year.
The provincial elections took place within the context of the current presidential campaign to replace the term-limited President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (2007-15). With less than four months to go until the October 25 election, the presidential contest has over the past two months gradually begun to approximate a two-horse race, with a third candidate hovering at the edge of viability. Today the presidential front-runner is the candidate of Fernández de Kirchner’s Front for Victory (FPV) alliance, Province of Buenos Aires governor Daniel Scioli. His principal rival is City of Buenos Aires mayor Mauricio Macri, who is the candidate of a broad alliance of opposition parties. The third candidate, national deputy Sergio Massa, is a member of Argentina’s large Peronist Movement like Fernández de Kirchner and Scioli, but is very critical of the Fernández de Kirchner government. Current polls place Massa in a somewhat distant third place, but also make clear that he is the only person other than Scioli or Macri with any prospect whatsoever of becoming the next president of Argentina.
In two of the provinces — Salta and Tierra del Fuego — the candidate backed by Fernández de Kirchner and Scioli was victorious. In Salta, Governor Juan Manuel Urtubey (2007–present) won a third four-year term. In Tierra del Fuego, Rosana Bertone was elected to her first term as governor of the “province at the end of the world.” Both defeated a candidate backed by an inclusive alliance of most of the non-Peronist and Peronist opposition forces in the province.
In two other provinces — Neuquén and Río Negro — the FPV candidate finished in second place behind the candidate of a provincial-based political party. However, in neither province is the victor, incumbent Alberto Weretilneck (2012–present) in Río Negro and Omar Gutiérrez of the Neuquén Popular Movement (MPN) in Neuquén, viewed as an opponent or rival by Scioli, Macri or Massa. Therefore, regardless of who is elected president, the two governors should have relatively little difficulty in establishing a strong positive working relationship with the next presidential administration. However, in the case of Río Negro’s Weretilneck, the relationship with a Scioli administration will be less harmonious than that between the federal government and the provinces of Salta and Tierra del Fuego as well as that that would exist between Río Negro and either a Macri or Massa presidential administration.
In the final province, Mendoza, Alfredo Cornejo of the Radical Civic Union (UCR) was able to unify the non-Peronist and Peronist opposition to defeat the FPV candidate, Adolfo Bermejo. In doing so, Cornejo flipped the country’s fifth most populous jurisdiction, which had been governed by the FPV since 2007.
All Argentine governors realize that to be successful they need to have some type of working relationship with the president and the national executive branch more generally. That said, the political ties and inclination of a province’s governor are relevant for the tenor and effectiveness of provincial government-federal government relations, and in that vein the outcome of the 2015 presidential race is germane for the future development of the oil and natural gas industry in each province. All other things being equal, there is likely to be a greater level of harmony and coordination and a smoother working relationship between the federal government and the provincial governments of Salta and Tierra del Fuego if Daniel Scioli is the next president, with the obverse the case for Mendoza. Conversely, the Mendoza provincial government would be in a more privileged position to coordinate and work productively with a national executive branch under the leadership of Mauricio Macri than would be the case for Salta and Tierra del Fuego.
Mark P. Jones is the Baker Institute’s fellow in political science as well as the Joseph D. Jamail Chair in Latin American Studies and the Director of the Master of Global Affairs Program at Rice University.
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