Skip to main content
Home

Main navigation

  • Centers & Programs
    • Centers
      • Center for Energy Studies
      • Center for Health and Biosciences
      • Center for the Middle East
      • Center for Public Finance
      • Center for the U.S. and Mexico
      • McNair Center
      Center for Energy Studies
      Providing new insights on the role of economics, policy and regulation in the performance and evolution of energy markets.
      More Details
      The globe at night, lights in populated areas illuminated
      Center for Health and Biosciences
      Advancing data-based policies that promote health and well-being in the U.S. and around the world.
      More Details
      Female healthcare worker lifts finger to press digital buttons featuring topical iconography
      Edward P. Djerejian Center for the Middle East
      Developing pragmatic policy approaches to the region’s enduring political, economic and societal concerns.
      More Details
      Topographic map of Middle East
      Center for Public Finance
      Delivering research and analysis on the effects of major U.S. fiscal policies.
      More Details
      Stack of coins with mathematical figure overlays
      Center for the U.S. and Mexico
      Strengthening the binational relationship by addressing major concerns on both sides of the border.
      More Details
      Textured flags of America and Mexico
      McNair Center for Entrepreneurship and Economic Growth
      Providing actionable policy analysis and recommendations that aim to expand the economy through private enterprise.
      More Details
      Professionals gather around a large table with laptops, printed documents and coffee cups for a business meeting
    • Programs
      • China Studies
      • Drug Policy
      • International Economics
      • Presidential Elections
      • Religion & Public Policy
      • Science & Technology Policy
      • Space Policy
      China Studies
      Analyzing the influence of the transnational circulation of people, technologies, commodities and ideas in China.
      Read More
      Person walks alongside large banner with Chinese characters
      Drug Policy
      Pursuing research and open debate to develop pragmatic drug policies based on common sense and driven by human rights interests.
      Read More
      Marijuana
      International Economics
      Studying timely issues in global economic policy as well as developmental policy in foreign countries.
      Read More
      International paper currencies stacked together, showing range of colors and styles
      Presidential Elections
      Offering nonpartisan analysis of elections to better understand the changing dynamics of presidential campaigns.
      Read More
      An assortment of campaign buttons from a variety of US elections and political pursuits are displayed in a collage
      Religion and Public Policy
      Exploring how religion and cultural factors interact with public policy issues.
      Read More
      A worn path stretches between rows of olive trees
      Science and Technology Policy
      Addressing a broad range of policy issues that affect scientists and their research.
      Read More
      A scientist picks up test tubes from a rack.
      Space Policy
      Focusing on U.S. space policy and the future of space travel.
      Read More
      The International Space Station (ISS) orbits the Earth at sunrise
  • Events
    Stem cell pipette
    Center for Health and Biosciences
    Fri, Sep. 29, 2023 | 7:30 am - 9 am
    Stem Cell Therapies: Hype, Hope and Evidence-based Decisions See Details
    Mandate Protest
    Center for Health and Biosciences
    Mon, Oct. 02, 2023 | 5 pm - 7 pm
    The Deadly Rise of Anti-science: An Evening with Dr. Peter Hotez See Details
    Icons representing clean energy with the evolution of decarbonization at the center
    Center for Energy Studies
    Wed, Oct. 04, 2023 | 8:30 am - 2:30 pm
    Annual Energy Summit Day 1 — The Evolving Energy Paradigm See Details
  • Experts
    • Biomedical Research
    • Child Health
    • China
    • Conflict Resolution in the Middle East
    • Drug Policy
    • Energy
    • Entrepreneurship and Economic Growth
    • Global Health
    • Health and Biosciences
    • Human Rights and Refugees
    • International Economics
    • Islam and Politics
    • Latin American Energy
    • Middle East
    • Political Economy of the Arab Gulf
    • Presidential Elections
    • Public Finance
    • Religion and Public Policy
    • Science and Technology
    • Space Policy
    • Texas Politics
    • U.S. and Iran
    • U.S. and Mexico
    • U.S. Health System Transformation
    • See All Experts
    • Experts in the News
  • Support
    • Join the Baker Roundtable
      Join the Baker Roundtable
      Learn more about the Baker Institute’s membership forum, which supports the mission of the institute and offers members exclusive access to experts and events.
      Read More
      RT
    • Major Gifts
      Major Gifts
      Major gifts provide the funds necessary for the Baker Institute to explore new areas of study and research, and expand current programs.
      Read More
      Wallace S. Wilson meeting with former British Prime Minister Tony Blair
    • Endowments
      Endowments
      Endowment gifts provide the Baker Institute with permanent resources that support research programs, fellows and scholars.
      Read More
      Pictured from left are William Martin, Katharine Neill Harris, Ambassador Edward Djerejian, Alfred C. Glassell, III, and Pam Lindberg
    • Planned Giving
      Planned Giving

      Plan a gift that will ensure lasting, meaningful support for policy programs important to you.

       

      Read More
      meeting
    • Corporate Support
      Corporate Support
      Corporations can become involved with the institute in a number of ways and see the benefit from the research conducted by our fellows and scholars.
      Read More
      Wide shot of the Doré Commons during a Shell Distinguished Lecture Series event featuring Wim Thomas
  • About
    • People
      People
      Learn more about the Baker Institute's leadership and get contact information for the administrative staff.
      Read More
      Secretary James A. Baker, III, stands with a portion of the Berlin Wall, outside of Baker Hall
    • Student Opportunities
      Student Opportunities
      The Baker Institute offers paid internships to degree-seeking students to help train the next generation of policy leaders.
      Read More
      Students team present policy recommendations to a panel of experts at a competition organized by the Baker Institute Student Forum (BISF)
    • Annual Report
    • Podcast: Baker Briefing
      Podcast: Baker Briefing
      Baker Briefing is a weekly podcast that tackles the most critical foreign and domestic policy issues of the day in conversations with experts at the Baker Institute.
      Read More
      Logo for the Baker Briefing Podcast (Square)
    • Contact
      Contact Us
      Complete a form for event, media or other inquiries, and get directions and parking information for the Baker Institute.
      Read More
      The front of Baker Hall, from across the plaza, with fountain in foreground
  • Contact
  • Research
    • Economics & Finance
      Economics & Finance
      Read More
    • Energy
      Latest Energy Research
      Summary on Latest Energy Research
      Read More
    • Foreign Policy
      Foreign Policy
      Read More
    • Domestic Policy
      Domestic Policy
      Read More
    • Health & Science
      Health & Science
      Read More
    • All Publications
  • Facebook
  • Youtube
  • Twitter
  • Linkedin
  • Economics & Finance
  • Energy
  • Foreign Policy
  • Domestic Policy
  • Health & Science
  • All Publications
Argentina Program | Commentary

Incumbent Governors on Track for Victory in Argentina’s Lithium & Copper Belt Provinces: Jujuy, Salta & San Juan

March 28, 2023 | Mark P. Jones
Mining at night

Table of Contents

Author(s)

Headshot of Mark Jones.
Mark P. Jones
Fellow in Political Science | Joseph D. Jamail Chair in Latin American Studies
Read More

Share this Publication

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Email
  • Linkedin
  • Print This Publication

Tags

ArgentinaShale

On May 7 and May 14, three of Argentina’s four major mining provinces will elect their respective governor and members of the provincial legislature. In Salta and San Juan the incumbent governor (Gustavo Sáenz and Sergio Uñac respectively) is heavily favored to win, while in Jujuy the handpicked candidate (Carlos Sadir) of the term-limited current governor (Gerardo Morales) is heavily favored to win. In sum, the upcoming elections in Argentina’s Lithium and Copper Belt are expected to ratify the status quo and return the governing party to power for another four-year term in control of the provinces of Jujuy, Salta and San Juan.

Four Argentine provinces contain 57 of Argentina’s 58 active (ranging from feasibility study status to production status) Lithium and Copper mining projects: Catamarca, Jujuy, Salta, and San Juan. Of the 38 active Lithium mining projects, 17 are located in Salta, 14 in Catamarca, 5 in Jujuy, and 1 in San Juan, with 1 straddling both sides of the Salta-Catamarca border. Of the 20 active Copper mining projects, 15 are in San Juan, 2 in Salta, 2 in Catamarca, and 1 in Mendoza.

Three of these four provinces are holding their provincial elections in May: Jujuy (May 7), Salta (May 14), San Juan (May 14). Catamarca will hold its provincial elections concurrent with the Argentine presidential election on October 22.

Jujuy

In Jujuy the governor is elected by a plurality vote (whoever gets the most votes wins). Governor Gerado Morales of the Unión Cívica Radical (UCR), who has served as Jujuy’s governor since 2015, is term-limited. His hand-picked successor is his provincial Minister of Finance, Carlos Sadir, who will run as the standard bearer of Frente Cambia Jujuy (FCJ), a coalition of more than two dozen political parties, including the UCR and Propuesta Federal (PRO), which are the two leading members of the Juntos por el Cambio (JxC) coalition. JxC represents the principal opposition at the national level to President Alberto Fernández’s and Vice President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner’s Frente de Todos (FdT). Sadir faces five challengers in the governor’s race.

The political leaders and parties aligned with the FdT failed to rally behind a single candidate for governor. National senator Guillermo Snopek is the gubernatorial candidate of one main FdT faction, Frente Unidad por Jujuy, while national deputy Rubén Rivarola is the gubernatorial candidate of the other main FdT faction, the Frente Justicialista.

Other gubernatorial candidates whose ceiling of support ranges between the high single digits and low teens include Luciano Demarco of the Frente Vía + Libertarios, Rodolfo Tecchi of the Frente Jujuy Tiene Futuro, and Alejandro Vilca of the Frente de Izquierda y de Trabajadores – Unidad.

With a little more than a month until May 7, Sadir is a virtual lock to win the Jujuy gubernatorial election, with the only uncertainties related to his margin of victory and which Peronist will finish in second place, Rivarola or Snopek.

Salta

In Salta the governor also is elected by a plurality vote. Governor Gustavo Saénz is aligned with the FdT at the national level, albeit more with Minister of Economy Sergio Massa (Frente Renovador) and less with former president and current vice president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner. Saénz is running for a second term as the candidate of the Gustavo Gobernador alliance, consisting of more than a dozen parties, including the Partido Justicialista. Saénz faces 11 challengers.

Saénz’s opponents within the FdT are splintered into four different alliances, each with its own gubernatorial candidate, while the JxC, after a considerable amount of friction, mostly (but not entirely) united behind a single candidate, national deputy Miguel Nanni of the UCR. Lucio Paz Posse is the candidate of the libertarian Frente Salta Avanza Con Vos alliance

The four other FdT factions are the Frente Avancemos, Entre Todos, Salta para Todos, and Frente Salta Va con Felicidad, with the former three factions strongly tied to the wing of the FdT led by Vice President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner.

Saénz’s most prominent Peronist rival is Emiliano Estrada (a former Sáenz ally and left-leaning member of the FdT coalition) of the Frente Avancemos alliance. Avancemos is a curious combination of the leftwing pro-Kirchner Estrada with the rightwing populist party of former national deputy Alfredo Olmedo. Entre Todos is running provincial senator Walter Wayar as its gubernational candidate, Salta para Todos is running national deputy Lía Caliva, and the Frente Salta Va con Felicidad has Mauro Sabbadini as its standard bearer.

Five gubernatorial candidates representing small far-left alliances and parties are Violeta Gil of Política Obrera, Claudia del Plá of the Frente de Izquierda, Daniela Planes of the Partido de Trabajadores Socialistas, Marcos Tognolini of Movimiento al Socialismo, and Daniel Escotorín of the Partido Instrumento Electoral por la Unidad Popular.

With a little more than a month and a half until the May 14 election, Sáenz is a virtual lock to be victorious in the gubernatorial election, with the only uncertainties related to his margin of victory and who will finish in second place.

San Juan

In San Juan the governor also is elected by a plurality vote, but in conjunction with a double simultaneous vote (DSV) electoral system. For the gubernatorial election this means that multiple candidates can run as part of an alliance and their votes are summed together in order to determine the plurality winner among the alliances. The next governor will be the plurality vote winner within the alliance which wins the plurality of the vote. In all 10 candidates from four alliances are running for governor.

Governor Sergio Uñac (2015- ) and former governor (2003-2015) and present national deputy José Luis Gioja are the candidates of the Peronist San Juan por Todos (SJxT) alliance, which at the national level is aligned with the FdT of President Fernández and Vice President Fernández de Kirchner.

The main opposition Unidos por San Juan (UxSJ) alliance is fielding four gubernatorial candidates: Marcelo Orrego (Cambia San Juan), Eduardo Cáceres (San Juan al Futuro), Sergio Vallejos (Evolución Liberal), and Marcelo Arancibia (Juntos).

In addition to these two principal alliances, two other smaller alliances are fielding gubernatorial candidates. The Desarrollo y Libertad alliance has three candidates: Yolanda Agüero (Libertarios), Paola Miers (El Rugido de Libertad), and Agustín Ramírez (Desarrollo y Unidad). The Frente de Izquierda y de Trabajadores – Unidad alliance is running a single candidate for governor, Cristian Jurado.

With a little over a month and a half until the May 14 election, Uñac is a virtual lock to be victorious in the gubernatorial election, with the only uncertainties related to the SJxT margin of victory over the UxSJ and Uñac’s margin of victory over Gioja within the SJxT.

This is the third entry of a series on the 2023 gubernatorial elections in Argentina’s leading petro-provinces (Chubut, Mendoza, Neuquén, Río Negro, Santa Cruz, Tierra del Fuego) and mining provinces (Catamarca, Jujuy, Salta, San Juan, Santa Cruz). The previous two entries are below.

This post originally appeared in the Forbes blog on Mar. 28, 2023.

  • Print This Publication
  • Share
    • Facebook
    • Twitter
    • Email
    • Linkedin

Related Research

Argentina oil flag
Argentina Program | Commentary

An Oil Workers Union Leader Could Be The Next Governor Of Argentina’s No. 3 Petro-Province, Santa Cruz

Read More
Oil pump in Patagonia Argentina
Argentina Program | Commentary

The July 30 Gubernatorial Election in Chubut, Argentina’s No. 2 Petro-Province

Read More
Mining at night
Argentina Program | Commentary

Governing Parties Prevail In 4 Argentine Mining & Petro Province Election

Read More
  • Facebook
  • Youtube
  • Twitter
  • Linkedin
  • Donate Now
  • Media Inquiries
  • Membership
  • About the Institute
  • Rice.edu
Contact Us

6100 Main Street
Baker Hall MS-40, Suite 120
Houston, TX 77005

Email: bipp@rice.edu
Phone: 713-348-4683
Fax: 713-348-5993

Baker Institute Newsletter

The email newsletter of Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy provides a snapshot of institute news, research and upcoming events.

Sign Up

  • © Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy
  • Web Accessibility
  • Privacy Policy