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The Two-Handed Economist | Center for Tax and Budget Policy | Podcast

The GDP Drop Isn’t the Real Warning Sign

May 2, 2025 | John W. Diamond
Chart showing stock market decline

Table of Contents

Author(s)

John W. Diamond

Edward A. and Hermena Hancock Kelly Senior Fellow in Public Finance | Director, Center for Tax and Budget Policy

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EconomyTariffsDonald TrumpThe Two-Handed Economist

About the Episode

The U.S. economy shrank by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, ending nearly three years of steady growth. On “The Two-Handed Economist,” John W. Diamond breaks down the latest GDP report and explains why the headline negative number isn’t the most important story — and what warning signals we should really be paying attention to.

This conversation was recorded on April 30, 2025. Subscribe and listen to “The Two-Handed Economist” on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts.

About ‘The Two-Handed Economist’

“The Two-Handed Economist” delivers timely analysis of economic news from John Diamond, director of the Baker Institute Center for Tax and Budget Policy. Each week, John dives deep into the latest policy developments — mostly at the federal level, but with insights now and again into Texas and Houston finance as well.

Why a two-handed economist? President Harry Truman famously asked for a one-handed economist, tired of hearing, “On the one hand, this,” and “On the other hand, that.” John embraces the complexity that a one-handed economist might shy away from, explaining how it all adds up for consumers, businesses, and policymakers.

 

 

This material may be quoted or reproduced without prior permission, provided appropriate credit is given to the author and Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy. The views expressed herein are those of the individual author(s), and do not necessarily represent the views of Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy.

© 2025 Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy
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