Did Trump’s Tariffs Work? What the Economic Data Shows

“If you fairly look at the data, it’s obvious that tariffs have been a big mistake. We tout all of these trade deals, but none of them put us back to where we even started. They just make us better than where we were on April 9th, Liberation Day. So the data’s already clear that the tariffs were an economic mistake. As time goes forward, assuming the tariffs stay in place, this is only going to become more and more apparent.”

— John W. Diamond, Ph.D., Director of the Baker Institute Center for Tax and Budget Policy

About the Episode

The Trump administration has touted its tariff strategy as a historic economic success, citing record stock market highs, falling trade deficits, and “virtually no inflation.” But what do the numbers actually show? In this episode of “Baker Briefing”, Ambassador David M. Satterfield sits down with John W. Diamond, director of the Baker Institute’s Center for Tax and Budget Policy, to examine the data behind the administration’s claims. They break down who really pays for the tariffs, what is driving GDP growth, and whether inflation has truly fallen. This conversation offers an objective assessment of how tariffs are reshaping the U.S. economy and who ultimately benefits as a result.

This conversation was recorded on Feb. 10, 2026. 

Mentioned in this episode:

• President Donald J. Trump, “My Tariffs Have Brought America Back,” Wall Street Journal.
• “The Two-Handed Economist” podcast, hosted by John W. Diamond.

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About Baker Briefing

Hosted by David M. Satterfield,  the “Baker Briefing” podcast delivers timely analysis on breaking policy developments and other critical policy issues of the day in conversations with experts at the Baker Institute. New episodes are released weekly.

Select episodes of “Baker Briefing” are recorded in front of a live audience at Rice University in Houston, Texas. These recordings are free and open to the public. To learn about upcoming recordings and other public programming from the Baker Institute, subscribe to our “Events Digest” newsletter, delivered weekly.

This material may be quoted or reproduced without prior permission, provided appropriate credit is given to the author and Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy. The views expressed herein are those of the individual author(s), and do not necessarily represent the views of Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy.