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By Erika de la Garza
It comes as no surprise that Costa Rica’s presidential election, held February 2, resulted in a runoff — only the second in the country’s history. In the weeks preceding the election, local and international media had given significant coverage to the rising popularity of José María Villalta, the 36-year-old candidate for the left-wing party, Frente Amplio (FA). The most recent polls showed him in second or third place following Johnny Araya of the ruling center-left Partido Liberación Nacional (PLN) and Otto Guevara of the Libertarian Movement (ML).
To everyone’s surprise, however, the top contender in Sunday’s election was not Araya, Villalta or Guevara, but Luis Guillermo Solís, a historian of the center-left Partido Acción Ciudadana (PAC), who has never been elected to office. Solís won 30.9 percent of the votes, followed by Araya with 29.6 percent. Villalta came a distant third with 17.1 percent, and Guevara came in fourth place with 11.1 percent. None received the 40 percent needed to win. In the runoff election that will take place on April 6, the two runners-up — Solís and Araya — will have to form alliances with the smaller parties in order to win.
The most likely alliances within the four parties that received the most votes will be Araya’s center-left PLN with the ML and Solis’ center-left PAC with the left-wing party FA. Depending on how the media spins this and the concessions Solís makes to Villalta for his endorsement, Costa Ricans may be facing a choice between a socialist or a more politically moderate candidate.
Regardless of whether Solís or Araya becomes the next president of Costa Rica, Congress will be more divided than ever. The disenchantment of Costa Ricans with politics as usual was made clear a couple of elections ago. The corruption scandals and indictments of two former presidents from one of the two traditional parties, Partido Unidad Social Crisitiana (PUSC), resulted in the country’s break away from a dual party system to the current multiparty one.
None of the nine parties’ representatives voted to Congress in Sunday’s election will hold a sizeable majority. Araya’s PLN will have 18 congressional members, Solís’ PAC will count 13, Villalta’s FA, nine, the PUSC, nine, and the other five have small fractions.
Plurality is a desired attribute of any democracy. Yet, having 14 presidential candidates to choose from and a highly fragmented Congress might hurt more than help Costa Rica. Costa Rican policymakers are still navigating the learning curve of building alliances with multiple parties rather than just one. Let’s hope they learn fast enough to move the country forward — and by doing so, help reverse the trend of last year’s Latinobarómetro poll, where Costa Rica’s support for democracy showed the largest contraction on the continent, followed by Mexico.
Erika de la Garza is the program director of the Latin America Initiative at the Baker Institute and the associate director of the institute’s Mexico Center. Her chief areas of interest include U.S.-Latin American relations; emerging leadership; coalition building between public, private and civil society actors; and trade and business development in Latin America.
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