Research Library

This working paper analyzes the prospects of Iran changing its domestic and foreign policy behavior over the longer term, and outlines what the United States and others can do to promote such changes.

This research paper investigates the relationship between the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) price of LNG, the price of Brent oil, and spot prices of fuel oil and thermal coal imported into Japan, South Korea, China and Taiwan.

International economics fellow Russell Green discusses the impact of the historic Plaza Accord agreement and what it would take to duplicate its success.

In this commentary, the authors examine the roots of the United States’ reluctance to embrace universal health care, concluding that it "is neither sound nor ethical in a nation that promulgates fairness and equal opportunity" to deny coverage.

As Congress resumes work this spring on a bill granting Trade Promotion Authority to President Obama for completion of the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade pact, many members have sought inclusion of a chapter on currency manipulation. Currency manipulation is a legitimate concern. However, countermeasures require clear, objective identification of currency manipulation. Both the IMF and the U.S. Treasury Department have mandates to identify currency manipulation, yet neither has done so in the past 20 years. If it can be done, why has it not happened more often? In this issue brief, Russell Green, Will Clayton Fellow in International Economics, reviews the difficulties of operationalizing a currency manipulation chapter and argues that the difficulty of identifying currency manipulation suggests serious political obstacles to implementation.

In this paper, author Peter Hartley examines the recent evolution of markets for LNG, focusing especially on the increasing amount of LNG being traded spot or under short-term contracts of less than four-years duration. Hartley argues that explanations for this increase, and other recent changes in LNG trading, imply that the proportion of LNG being traded under long-term contracts is likely to continue to decline and that the flexibility of long-term contracts for trading LNG is likely to continue to increase.

In this study, Al Troner reviews, analyzes, and tracks the changes that have emerged in US oil and gas over recent years, and surveys the implications of modification, or full abolition, of the decades-long US crude oil export ban.

While much has been made in recent years about the increasing liquidity and size of a spot market for liquefied natural gas, most LNG is still sold under confidential, long-term contracts. In fact, in 2013, according to data from the International Group of Liquefied Natural Gas Importers, 73 percent of all LNG trades took place under long-term contracts, which are especially prevalent in Asian markets. Despite the fact that this constitutes an enormous trade, there is very little transparency about how prices are specified, what actual transaction prices are or when pricing terms change. Using publicly available customs data on 16 different trade routes of the largest importers of LNG, graduate fellow Mark Agerton applies econometric techniques to estimate and characterize the empirical relationship between LNG import prices and crude oil prices.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement offers an opportunity to deepen U.S.-Mexico economic ties without reopening the still contentious North American Free Trade Agreement for negotiation. It may also serve as a vehicle for advancing the current Mexican government’s economic reform agenda. The leaders of the U.S. and Mexico believe that the TPP will bolster domestic economic growth.

Talk of a “pivot to Asia” that supposedly would mark President Obama’s second term is “misplaced and even simplistic,” writes fellow Kristian Coates Ulrichsen. In a globalized world, “key U.S. relationships with strategic and commercial partners … cannot be addressed in isolation from one another. The convergence of U.S. ties and Asian ties with the Middle East is a case in point highlights how regions and issues are interconnected as never before.”