How much can demographic changes account for trends in the U.S. economy? This paper shows that a heterogeneous-agent, overlapping-generations model with historical demographic flows can generate several features of the U.S. economy over the past several decades, including a secular decline in economic growth, a rise in savings relative to GDP, a corresponding decline in real interest rates, and, in part, changes in wealth inequality.
Given that policymakers will eventually need to decide how to resolve the social security program’s projected shortfall, this paper presents a simulation-based approach to evaluating the conventional alternatives of adjustments to benefits or taxes.
Over a decade ago, the Inter-American Development Bank led an in-depth analysis of eight South American countries that profoundly influenced the understanding of political institutions and the policymaking process in Latin America. In 2018, the Baker Institute’s Latin America Initiative expanded the project to include four additional Central American countries: Honduras, Guatemala, El Salvador and Panama. These country reports, written in Spanish, are available below.
Hace casi una década, el Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo (BID) impulso un análisis sobre ocho países suramericanos que influyó profundamente el entendimiento de instituciones políticas y el proceso de formulación de políticas públicas en América Latina. El Latin America Initiative del Baker Institute amplió el análisis para incluir a cuatro países de Centro América: Honduras, Guatemala, El Salvador y Panamá. Estos ensayos forman parte del análisis sobre los países de Centro América.
Miguel Cálix Martínez, Julio RaudalesDecember 18, 2018
Since the progressivity of the sales tax is difficult to directly measure, this paper introduces an indirect approach combining simulated household income with realizations of consumption behavior from survey data.
In an economy with heterogeneous firms and heterogeneous consumers, the authors describe a general equilibrium where firm equity is priced by a supply and demand process. With a model robust to arbitrary, nonlinear tax functions, they investigate the efficiency of replacing the current U.S. tax regime with a policy of no corporate taxes and taxation of capital distributions to the household at progressive personal income tax rates.
