Experts in the News

“Within the UAE, Dubai has become a centre of soft power while Abu Dhabi is all about hard power, making decisions on security, defence, regional security issues. Whereas Dubai is this aspirational hub intended for people all over the world to live in, to work, to do business – that’s replicated in having [COP28] in Dubai,” said Coates Ulrichsen.

"The ground in the Gulf has clearly shifted to Qatar's position on the Israel-Palestine conflict," said Coates Ulrichsen on Doha's role as mediator.

There’s a risk of reputational damage to the UAE if they fail to make any traction in the talks, particularly as they are a major oil producer, said Coates Ulrichsen.

“There is also a risk that media and civil society coverage will focus critically on issues such as the UAE’s planned expansion of oil production capacity and depict the UAE as part of the part of the problem rather than the solution in terms of climate politics.”

As tensions continue to rise in the Middle East, Gulf states could influence Israel's campaign and avert a wider regional war. “Saudi Arabia can hold hope in keeping the prospects of a Saudi-Israel deal alive," said Coates Ulrichsen.

“In the current conflict, Qatar has a pragmatic working relationship with Israel where Qatar has been providing humanitarian and financial support to Gaza since 2018, and a functional relationship with the political leadership of Hamas. We see Qatar involved in the mediation to secure and release hostages because of those relationships on both sides...they can act as the man in the middle to serve as a back channel for communication and dialogue.”