There is no appetite in the broader region for a conflict with or involving Iran, said Coates Ulrichsen.
The greatest risk, he said, is “an escalating cycle of action and reprisal in which each side responds to the other and other actors join the fighting as well.”
“The serious escalation by Hamas means it may be difficult for Doha to leverage the relationships it has built in Gaza while the fighting continues, although we saw back in 2014 how Qatari officials coordinated closely with Turkish and US counterparts to keep open channels of communication that eventually helped facilitate an end to that round of fighting, but this time might be more challenging, given the scale and intensity of what has happened,” said Coates Ulrichsen.
“Relations between Qatar and Saudi Arabia have repaired further and faster with the Saudis than with the other states that moved against Qatar,” explains Coates Ulrichsen. “The image of (Saudi crown prince) Mohammed bin Salman draped in a Qatari scarf during the World Cup sent a powerful visual signal that the bad blood of the blockade era was over, at least at the highest political and diplomatic levels.”
“To the extent that the prisoner swap indicates that the U.S. and Iran can engage through dialogue and indirect diplomacy on specific issues, it is a gain for advocates of regional dialogue and for those who believe in de-escalating tensions rather than generating new flashpoints and potential triggers for conflict,” Coates Ulrichsen said.
He added: “The prisoner swap confirms Qatar’s status as the pre-eminent mediator in the Middle East and adds to a track record of achieving results that goes back more than a decade but which was for a time marginalised by post-2011 regional tension and diplomatic strain.”
Dubai is likely a far larger market, but Ras Al Khaimah "views the launch of a casino as a potential game changer in its own tourism plans,” fellow Kristian Ulrichsen said of the UAE's recent framework for gambling.