Skip to main content
Home

Main navigation

  • Centers & Programs
    • Centers
      • Center for Energy Studies
      • Center for Health and Biosciences
      • Center for the Middle East
      • Center for Public Finance
      • Center for the U.S. and Mexico
      • McNair Center
      Center for Energy Studies
      Providing new insights on the role of economics, policy and regulation in the performance and evolution of energy markets.
      More Details
      The globe at night, lights in populated areas illuminated
      Center for Health and Biosciences
      Advancing data-based policies that promote health and well-being in the U.S. and around the world.
      More Details
      Female healthcare worker lifts finger to press digital buttons featuring topical iconography
      Edward P. Djerejian Center for the Middle East
      Developing pragmatic policy approaches to the region’s enduring political, economic and societal concerns.
      More Details
      Topographic map of Middle East
      Center for Public Finance
      Delivering research and analysis on the effects of major U.S. fiscal policies.
      More Details
      Stack of coins with mathematical figure overlays
      Center for the U.S. and Mexico
      Strengthening the binational relationship by addressing major concerns on both sides of the border.
      More Details
      Textured flags of America and Mexico
      McNair Center for Entrepreneurship and Economic Growth
      Providing actionable policy analysis and recommendations that aim to expand the economy through private enterprise.
      More Details
      Professionals gather around a large table with laptops, printed documents and coffee cups for a business meeting
    • Programs
      • China Studies
      • Drug Policy
      • International Economics
      • Presidential Elections
      • Religion & Public Policy
      • Science & Technology Policy
      • Space Policy
      China Studies
      Analyzing the influence of the transnational circulation of people, technologies, commodities and ideas in China.
      Read More
      Person walks alongside large banner with Chinese characters
      Drug Policy
      Pursuing research and open debate to develop pragmatic drug policies based on common sense and driven by human rights interests.
      Read More
      Marijuana
      International Economics
      Studying timely issues in global economic policy as well as developmental policy in foreign countries.
      Read More
      International paper currencies stacked together, showing range of colors and styles
      Presidential Elections
      Offering nonpartisan analysis of elections to better understand the changing dynamics of presidential campaigns.
      Read More
      An assortment of campaign buttons from a variety of US elections and political pursuits are displayed in a collage
      Religion and Public Policy
      Exploring how religion and cultural factors interact with public policy issues.
      Read More
      A worn path stretches between rows of olive trees
      Science and Technology Policy
      Addressing a broad range of policy issues that affect scientists and their research.
      Read More
      A scientist picks up test tubes from a rack.
      Space Policy
      Focusing on U.S. space policy and the future of space travel.
      Read More
      The International Space Station (ISS) orbits the Earth at sunrise
  • Events
    Child at border plays in the dirt with superhero toy
    Center for the U.S. and Mexico
    Thu, Feb. 23, 2023 | 5 pm - 7:30 pm
    Immigration Reform and the Impact on Children: A Town Hall Discussion See Details
    The front of Baker Hall, from across the plaza, with fountain on the left
    Center for Energy Studies | Edward P. Djerejian Center for the Middle East
    Thu, Mar. 02, 2023 | 11:30 am - 1:30 pm
    How Kuwait and Other Gulf Oil Giants Are Navigating the Energy Transition See Details
    Tile mosaic over an entrance to Baker Hall that reads "A Bridge Between the World of Ideas and the World of Action"
    Center for the U.S. and Mexico | Edward P. Djerejian Center for the Middle East
    Wed, Mar. 15, 2023 | 5:30 pm - 7:30 pm
    Charting Paths Forward on Immigration Reform See Details
  • Experts
    • Biomedical Research
    • Child Health
    • China
    • Conflict Resolution in the Middle East
    • Domestic Health Policy
    • Drug Policy
    • Energy
    • Entrepreneurship and Economic Growth
    • Global Health
    • Health and Biosciences
    • Human Rights and Refugees
    • International Economics
    • Islam and Politics
    • Latin American Energy
    • Middle East
    • Political Economy of the Arab Gulf
    • Presidential Elections
    • Public Finance
    • Religion and Public Policy
    • Science and Technology
    • Space Policy
    • Texas Politics
    • U.S. and Iran
    • U.S. and Mexico
    • See All Experts
    • Experts in the News
  • Support
    • Join the Baker Roundtable
      Join the Baker Roundtable
      Learn more about the Baker Institute’s membership forum, which supports the mission of the institute and offers members exclusive access to experts and events.
      Read More
      RT
    • Major Gifts
      Major Gifts
      Major gifts provide the funds necessary for the Baker Institute to explore new areas of study and research, and expand current programs.
      Read More
      Wallace S. Wilson meeting with former British Prime Minister Tony Blair
    • Endowments
      Endowments
      Endowment gifts provide the Baker Institute with permanent resources that support research programs, fellows and scholars.
      Read More
      Pictured from left are William Martin, Katharine Neill Harris, Ambassador Edward Djerejian, Alfred C. Glassell, III, and Pam Lindberg
    • Planned Giving
      Planned Giving

      Plan a gift that will ensure lasting, meaningful support for policy programs important to you.

       

      Read More
      meeting
    • Corporate Support
      Corporate Support
      Corporations can become involved with the institute in a number of ways and see the benefit from the research conducted by our fellows and scholars.
      Read More
      Wide shot of the Doré Commons during a Shell Distinguished Lecture Series event featuring Wim Thomas
  • About
    • People
      People
      Learn more about the Baker Institute's leadership and get contact information for the administrative staff.
      Read More
      Secretary James A. Baker, III, stands with a portion of the Berlin Wall, outside of Baker Hall
    • Student Opportunities
      Student Opportunities
      Through the internships on campus and beyond, Rice students can explore careers in public policy, or simply become better informed about important issues of the day.
      Read More
      Amb. Edward P. Djerejian speaks with students outside Baker Hall
    • Annual Report
    • Blog
    • Contact
      Contact Us
      Complete a form for event, media or other inquiries, and get directions and parking information for the Baker Institute.
      Read More
      The front of Baker Hall, from across the plaza, with fountain in foreground
  • Contact
  • Research
    • Economics & Finance
      Economics & Finance
      Read More
    • Energy
      Latest Energy Research
      Summary on Latest Energy Research
      Read More
    • Foreign Policy
      Foreign Policy
      Read More
    • Domestic Policy
      Domestic Policy
      Read More
    • Health & Science
      Health & Science
      Read More
    • All Publications
  • Facebook
  • Youtube
  • Twitter
  • Linkedin
  • Economics & Finance
  • Energy
  • Foreign Policy
  • Domestic Policy
  • Health & Science
  • All Publications
Center for Energy Studies | Research Paper

Hurricane/Tropical Storm Harvey: Policy Perspectives

September 6, 2017 | Jim Blackburn
Flooding from Hurricane Harvey

Table of Contents

Author(s)

Headshot of Jim Blackburn
Jim Blackburn
Baker Institute Rice Faculty Scholar | Professor in the Practice of Environmental Law
Read More

Share this Publication

  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Email
  • Linkedin
  • Download PDF
  • Print This Publication

Tags

Baker Institutefloods, natural disastersnatural disastersfloods, natural disasterscatastrophic flooding

Hurricane/Tropical Storm Harvey clearly revealed what most of us have known for a long time: Houston and the Houston-Galveston region have major flooding problems, and the sooner we stop denying this fact, the sooner we can begin finding solutions. Being honest about the extent and urgency of our problem will not harm us, but will form the basis for recovery. Denying fundamental truths and moving forward with business as usual will be the economic death knell for the Houston region. And make no mistake about it—how we respond to this horrible reality will determine the economic future of our region.

This article is not about the technical aspects of Harvey as a devastating hurricane. A major, forthcoming report from the Severe Storm Prediction, Education, and Evacuation from Disasters Center (SSPEED) at Rice University will offer an initial comprehensive assessment of facts and figures about Harvey. Suffice it to say that Harvey was an extremely large flood event caused by an average of 35-40 inches of rain over 3.5 days, with some areas receiving upwards of 50 inches. The recorded 24-hour rainfall was just over 16 inches in several watersheds, surpassing the 100-year rainfall amount, which averages just over 13 inches across Harris County.

It is doubtful that any city in the United States or the world could have “handled” 40 inches of rain in 3.5 days or even 16 inches in 24 hours. This is a huge amount of water to handle. However, the extent of the damages and misery can be substantially reduced the next time we have a similar “weird weather” event that now seems the norm.

The task for Houston going forward is to adopt of series of policies and actions that can and will make a difference. To paraphrase Albert Einstein, the Houston we have created to date as a result of our thinking thus far has problems that cannot be solved by thinking the way we were thinking when we created them. That is our challenge—to think boldly and creatively to develop ideas and policies that are, indeed, different.

Ideas about where we can start and what concepts might be viable are set out below. These are not intended to be exhaustive; rather, they are meant to initiate a conversation about designing a Houston for the future.

1. A clear starting point is to identify the areas that did not flood during Harvey. These areas will form the backbone of the Houston of tomorrow.

2. There are several areas, mostly deep in the mapped floodplains, where multiple floods have damaged homes again and again. Some have been flooded three or more times since Tropical Storm Allison in 2001. We need to identify these areas and remove these homes from harm’s way; it is unlikely we can develop strategies to protect them from severe rainfall events that are much more frequent than labels such as “100-year” or even “500- year” rainfall events suggest. In order to do this, there will need to be a massive buy-out program. At this early stage, it has been estimated that over 75,000 homes flooded during and after Harvey; that number is likely to double when all the data is in. A fair but extensive home buyout and removal program must be established.

3. Based on the above two steps, three clear geographic zones of strategy will become evident. They should be mapped and separate policies should be considered for what might be regarded as the “safe” area, a “transitional” area where only single-event flooding has occurred, and the “buyout” area, which will become a key element of our future green infrastructure that will, along with the “safe” area, provide urban design definition to the Houston of tomorrow.

4. The Addicks and Barker Reservoirs are excellent flood control reservoirs that are in need of repair, rescue, and resuscitation. Multiple strategies should be considered here.

a. The Corps of Engineers has to fix the deteriorated levee conditions that caused these reservoirs to be classified as two of the six most dangerous flood control dams in the United States. Although some work has been completed, more needs to done. We must determine what needs to happen to get this work underway, and the repairs must be completed.

b. These two reservoirs have accumulated extensive amounts of silt and sediment over the last 60-plus years of operation. That dirt needs to be removed. By doing this, at least two or more feet of capacity can be restored to each of these reservoirs—capacity that was desperately needed during Harvey. This is an easy fix.

c. These two reservoirs, although designed for multiple-day flood events, are not large enough for the rain that fell during Harvey, and caused extensive flooding downstream on Buffalo Bayou as well as upstream behind the dams. A new flood control reservoir has been sited and at least partially designed by the Harris County Flood Control District. If constructed as proposed, it would offer significant relief to the Addicks Reservoir. This new reservoir has not been pursued to date due to a decision to seek federal funding rather than paying for and building it ourselves. Had this been funded and constructed at the time it was first suggested, there would have been important additional capacity available. This alternative should be pursued immediately.

5. Severe storms are in our future. Whether you say it is climate change or just “weird weather,” the fact is that we are looking at larger, more severe storm events than we have previously contemplated. It is hard to grasp how large and how serious these storms can be. Harvey, for now, has defined the edge of severe rainfall events, but we have not seen the worst hurricane surge that is likely to occur at some point in the future. Rice’s SSPEED Center has completed the modeling of realistic future scenarios that predict larger storm surges than experienced to date on the upper Texas coast. Surge levels of up to 25 feet above sea level are generated by reasonable worst-case storms of the future. Such a storm would devastate the chemical and refining heart of the Houston economy and cause one of the worst environmental disasters in U.S. history. We have to understand that these storms indeed can and will happen. Harvey showed us that fact.

6. We must determine the appropriate 100-year and 500-year rainfall events for the design, planning, and engineering that will occur in the aftermath of Harvey. A 100-year rainfall in Harris County has become so common that residents laugh when they hear we have just experienced another 100-year flood. The fact is, our rainfall patterns are becoming more severe, and we must address that situation as soon as possible. It is likely that most of Harris County’s flood damage occurred within the 500-year floodplain, which was determined on the basis of about 19 inches of rain over a 24-hour period. As an interim measure, we might adopt the mapped 500-year floodplain as Houston’s official floodplain rather than continue using the out-of-date 100-year storm. Then, once more realistic rainfall levels are set, the resulting 100-year and 500-year floodplains should be comprehensively remapped.

7. A thorough analysis of the role and future of the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) flood insurance program needs to be undertaken. Although this program is a source of much-needed subsidized flood insurance that would be generally unavailable through the private sector, it also enables floodplain development based on maps that it publishes (although much of the work is done by Harris County). These floodplains are too small because the rainfall amounts they are based on are too small. We have to get this information right, and FEMA has a major role in this. FEMA regulations concerning floodplain development that all communities in the federal flood insurance program must follow depend on the accuracy of these maps in order to succeed. Further, strengthening these regulations by limiting new construction in these danger zones should be considered. This program is simply failing to alleviate flood damages at this time.

8. Native prairies and wetlands still exist in the western and northwestern portions of Harris County. We should establish programs to preserve these areas because they have an amazing natural capacity to absorb rainwater and store it in the soil. Here, there are market-based approaches that could be excellent methods of paying landowners to raise a “crop” of stored water. There are also certain steps that need to be taken to ensure that such market approaches can function in Texas and the United States, not only for flood water containment, but also for carbon farming, the most likely “crop” to generate substantial income for farmers and ranchers. The SSPEED Center has developed the Texas Coastal Exchange to create a trading system, details of which will be explained in a forthcoming Baker Institute publication. This approach requires no local, state, or federal funding.

9. More money must become available for flood damage reduction and flood planning than is currently available. We have put off spending money on excellent projects because our government officials have not been willing to ask people in the region to pay for them. Although politicians will resist this idea, we need a special flooding abatement tax, but with safeguards such as specifying details about the projects and approaches to be funded with the revenue raised by these taxes. The Dutch have a national tax for flooding abatement because it is considered a matter of national security. We need one for regional security.

10. We need tools to help us live with the floods that we know are in our future. We need the best flood warning and flood information system in the United States—one that matches the extent of our flooding problem, which is among the worst in the United States, according to payouts on flood insurance (and that was before Harvey). With the technology of today, we should be able to obtain information in real time about rainfall intensities, bayou conditions, and flooded roads and intersections. No one should die because they have driven into a submerged intersection that is known to have problems during a heavy rain. Certain high priority municipal areas—including arts and other civic venues—must be flood-proofed, much as the Texas Medical Center has become much more resilient, with a sophisticated warning system and flood gates that are deployed based on the warnings. These and many other tools are there if we just search for them.

11. Our pattern of development has been outward from the center of Houston and up the watersheds of the various bayous and creeks. As such, new development has dumped increased runoff onto older downstream subdivisions and commercial structures. Inadvertently, we have dumped runoff on older neighborhoods while attempting to keep flood control costs lower in new developments, effectively subsidizing new development on the backs of the downstream residents. Fort Bend County has much more stringent drainage regulations than does Harris County and it fared better in the storm than did Harris County. Fort Bend County also has had excellent economic growth. We can design better, safer subdivisions and still thrive economically. Do not believe otherwise.

12. There are some building techniques that work better than others in Houston. As a general proposition, our storm sewers handle the most frequent storms and our streets are the secondary drainage system up to a 25-year storm event. Additional runoff into flooded streets simply moves over the curbs and into our yards. It is likely that homes with floor slabs that are not elevated higher than the top of street curb will flood in larger storm events. We should encourage, if not require, that that the foundations of all new and rebuilt homes be elevated well above the crown of the street.

13. We need to help our citizens learn about flooding, its risk, and how it may impact them. We should have easily available information about floodplains and their accuracy (at least until new ones come out), where the major flooding occurred, and where the repetitive flooding has occurred. Those moving into hurricane evacuation zones should be informed of this fact. A public marker showing the height of the surge flooding from Category 4 and 5 hurricanes was removed by a local governmental entity because “it interfered with land sales.” Well, of course it did. Well-informed buyers make good decisions. Bad decisions are enabled by bad information.

14. Harvey was a huge rainfall storm, but it did not have a surge component of any magnitude in Galveston Bay. Our region has not seen a worst-case damage scenario such as would come with a 20- to 25-foot surge engulfing the refining and chemical complex that is a centerpiece of Houston’s economy. Such a storm would likely generate the worst environmental disaster in U.S. history and render areas around Galveston Bay uninhabitable. There are at least two viable solutions to protect both the economy of the area and residents along with western shoreline of Galveston Bay and the city of Galveston. The alternative favored by many—the Ike Dike—costs perhaps as much as $15 billion and cannot be funded by local governments alone. Another—the mid-bay solution—costs about $3 billion, offers about 95% of the protection provided by the more expensive alternative, and can be funded and built locally. We should carefully consider how any federal money that is forthcoming is spent. We may not have the luxury of spending $15 billion on any single alternative.

15. We need to develop metrics to keep up with the success or failures of our alternatives and expenditures. We need to keep a tally sheet by watershed of the number of acres in the floodplain and floodway (and report changes such as occurred in 2004-2007), the number and location of homes flooded, the streets and intersections that flooded the worst, the number of cars flooded, the amount of damages per watershed, the amount of money spent on flood damage reduction per watershed, the number of grandfathered permits and variances issued, etc. The point is, we need public accountability and transparency in our flood control work. Every major corporation in the United States has excellent metrics of virtually all aspects of their business, often displayed on their website for all to view. Houston needs a similar system going forward.

These ideas are a starting point for discussion and action to improve our situation relative to flooding. It is time to pull out every option that we have and figure out how to use them collectively. It is not all or nothing. It is a mixture of strategies both structural and non- structural that will lead us to find better ways to live here on the Texas coast.

 

 

This material may be quoted or reproduced without prior permission, provided appropriate credit is given to the author and Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy. The views expressed herein are those of the individual author(s), and do not necessarily represent the views of Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy.

© 2017 by the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy of Rice University
  • Print This Publication
  • Share
    • Facebook
    • Twitter
    • Email
    • Linkedin

Related Research

Russia Map Globe
Center for Energy Studies | Issue Brief

Putin Is Bulldozing Russia’s Energy Exports and Pushing the Energy Transition

Read More
Natural Gas
Center for Energy Studies | Policy Brief

Why Natural Gas Price Caps in Australia are Poor Policy

Read More
PVC Pipes
Center for Energy Studies | Research Paper

Why Classifying PVC as Hazardous Waste Undermines America's Zero-Waste and Energy Transition Goals

Read More
  • Facebook
  • Youtube
  • Twitter
  • Linkedin
  • Donate Now
  • Media Inquiries
  • Membership
  • About the Institute
  • Rice.edu
Contact Us

6100 Main Street
Baker Hall MS-40, Suite 120
Houston, TX 77005

Email: bipp@rice.edu
Phone: 713-348-4683
Fax: 713-348-5993

Baker Institute Newsletter

The email newsletter of Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy provides a snapshot of institute news, research and upcoming events.

Sign Up

  • © Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy
  • Web Accessibility
  • Privacy Policy