Table of Contents
Author(s)
For the Biden administration, 2023 was a bad year for foreign policy. True, the United States is not directly engaged in major hostilities. But in Ukraine and particularly in the Middle East, the administration has experienced sharp setbacks. These reverses could prove damaging for President Joe Biden’s presidential prospects in November.
Rising Cost of Foreign Policy
In the Middle East, U.S. foreign policy is in tatters. The Oct. 7 terrorist attack by the Hamas militant group prompted a furious Israeli response that has resulted in mass casualties in the Gaza Strip. Washington is still scrambling with its response to the war. The conflict caught the Biden administration by surprise: Just eight days before the conflagration in Gaza, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan declared the Middle East “quieter today than it has been in two decades.”
The Israel-Hamas war is already costly: Tens of thousands of people have died, and thousands of buildings have been destroyed. If the war spreads, it could trigger a general Middle Eastern conflict. The Lebanon-based terrorist group Hezbollah could open a second front against Israel at any moment, while Iranian-backed groups have already attacked U.S. military facilities in Syria and Iraq.
Perhaps most alarmingly of all, the Iran-backed Houthis — a violent Islamist group that rules much of Yemen — have launched drone attacks against merchant vessels with ties to Israel in the Red Sea. The attacks threaten global trade and represent a direct challenge to the U.S., the guarantor of the world’s sea lanes since World War II.
Biden Walks a Tightrope in the Middle East
Biden’s full-throated support for Israel has left the United States isolated in international forums like the United Nations. Meanwhile, his administration will spend months, not weeks, keeping a lid on the Middle East. Once hostilities end in Gaza, Biden will face the onerous task of cobbling together a peace process aimed at a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian impasse.
The situation could not be less promising. The war has been bloody. Emotions are high. Trust between Palestinians and Israelis is close to zero. Moreover, previous efforts by the U.S. to broker a deal between the two parties have repeatedly failed. To believe that this time will be different would be a triumph of hope over experience. But the Biden administration is convinced that there is no long-term alternative to a two-state solution. In the absence of any agreement, Israeli-Palestinian relations will merely stumble from crisis to crisis, with the U.S., given its long-standing support for Israel, invariably dragged into the fracas.
Full diplomatic recognition of Israel by Saudi Arabia, perhaps in combination with a U.S. security guarantee for Riyadh, will likely be put on hold. Such recognition has been a key regional priority for Biden. Furthermore, ongoing efforts to bring Iran back into compliance with the nuclear deal struck while Barack Obama was president, already troubled, are unlikely to make much progress.
How could the war between Israel and Hamas impact the 2024 U.S. presidential election? Biden has been widely assailed by his party’s progressive wing for backing Israel’s military response in Gaza. Whether this will impact his support from the left is unclear. But, given how close the general election might be, his administration should be concerned.
Support for Ukraine Remains in Question
The situation in Ukraine is also disappointing for the Biden administration. Last year began with high hopes that a Ukrainian counteroffensive would make substantial gains against the Russian military. These hopes have since been dashed on the field of battle. Except for attacks on the Russian navy, Ukrainian successes have been few, and losses have been high. Russia was not unscathed by the fighting last year, but its military has held its own and indeed launched admittedly costly attacks.
International support for Ukraine remains firm. As a sign of solidarity, the European Union recently opened accession talks with Kyiv. Oddly enough, the U.S. is a wild card in Ukraine’s future. The Biden administration remains staunchly committed to giving Ukraine military, financial, and diplomatic support. But the same cannot be said of many House Republicans, who have held aid to Ukraine hostage to concessions on U.S. border control.
Most alarming to all of those who support Ukraine is the very real prospect that former President Donald Trump will be elected this fall. Given Trump’s long-standing admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin, Ukraine and its friends rightly fear that Trump would force a pro-Russian peace on the Ukrainian government.
Expect Continued Tensions With China
On the Chinese front, Biden has secured a modest success. In the wake of his meeting with President Xi Jinping in November, relations between the U.S. and China have stopped their downward slide.
But the bilateral relationship will likely remain tense; U.S. military dominance in East Asia is a continuing affront to China’s regional ambitions. A rising power, China is much like the United States in the 19th century, when it let the world know it considered the Western Hemisphere its sphere of influence. Today’s China feels much the same way about East Asia. The U.S. Navy has dominated the waters off China since World War II, and it is unsurprising that Beijing would like to supplant U.S. military dominance in the region.
Surprises Could Be on the Horizon
Will 2024 see a reversal of fortune for Biden’s foreign policy? Hamas’ attack on Israel came, seemingly, out of nowhere. There may well be more ugly surprises in store for us this year. In foreign policy, it is always wise to hope for the best and plan for the worst. We should buckle up for another wild ride.
This material may be quoted or reproduced without prior permission, provided appropriate credit is given to the author and Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy. The views expressed herein are those of the individual author(s), and do not necessarily represent the views of Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy.