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Mexico finds itself in a precarious position, given the level of victimization that the drug cartel wars are imposing on its citizens and the resultant loss of civil authority that is increasingly being eroded by pressures placed on local and state governments by drug trafficking organizations. The larger part of the violence is occurring in two regions of Mexico- namely, the Pacific states, where drugs and chemicals are introduced into the country; and the northern border, where those same illegal commodities are ultimately exported into the United States.
In November 2010, the Mexican President Felipe Calderon gave a speech in which he acknowledge that those regions of the country were of the greatest concern to his administration with regard to drug-cartel-induced violence. Paraphrased here, he said: "I know the pain of this nation, and that pain does not permit our consciences a single moment of doubt, or fear, or of vacillation. There, where crime is happening, where it affects our citizens most; there in Tamaulipas, where they are suffering; in Nuevo Leon; in Chihuahua; in Michoacán; there, we will be redoubling our presence to help our citizens."
Criminality is visibly gaining ground over local governments, gradually subverting the abilities of mayors and governors to function effectively. Drug cartels are controlling police assets from behind the barrel of a gun or with more money than public coffers can afford, thereby negating the ability of elected officials to direct security resources from the chambers of city halls and state government houses. The cartels make and enforce their own rules, often with little to no interference from legitimate municipal authorities. Mexican officials continue being threatened, kidnapped, tortured, and killed, most often with impunity, and common folk are in fear, unable to freely carry on the tasks of daily living because of the war that endlessly rages around them.
Of those two zones of conflict, the northern reaches of Mexico are of serious concern to the United States because of the constant bidirectional ebb and flow of people and business across the border, as well as an illegal drug, human, weapons, and bulk-cash smuggling trade between the two countries that shows no sign of diminishing. Both nations are increasingly wary of the intentions of the other. The United States is worried that the Mexican government will not be able to contain cartel violence inside its borders. Mexico, in turn, is on the defensive, concerned that the United States may take rash action to defend its citizens and interests on either side of the 2,300-mile stretch of territory that lies between the two countries.
The situation in northern Mexico is volatile and the outcomes are uncertain. Mexico could eventually gain the upper hand and establish full control of its side of the border region, lessening U.S. security concerns, or it could. lose the effort to retain control of the field and thereby lose its ability to ensure public safety at the state and local levels.
Discounting Mexican public concerns and tacit admissions to that end, many indicators point the beginning of what could be considered failing state and local governments in the northern Mexico region, particularly in the state of Tamaulipas.
The criteria that define the "tipping point" (commonly known as "the moment of critical mass, the threshold, the boiling point"), or in this case, the point at which credible authority is lost and a fall toward anarchy in northern Mexico occurs, are an abstract jumble of social factors, security considerations, political outcomes, and political will at levels of government.
In an effort to establish and demonstrate a forward-leaning posture, on June 13, 2011, the National Conference of Governors (CONAGO, or Conferencia Nacional de Gobernadores) initiated the first-ever simultaneous and combined state and federal law enforcement operation designed to improve public safety at the local levels.
If this experiment in unified police operations does not become practice, consistently address the many security issues that are being challenged by the cartels, and have positive public safety effects, the northern border states could be consumed by an already strongly intimidating criminal element operating throughout the country, and it will become more difficult to restore the equilibrium that represents Mexico at rest.
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