How much can demographic changes account for trends in the U.S. economy? This paper shows that a heterogeneous-agent, overlapping-generations model with historical demographic flows can generate several features of the U.S. economy over the past several decades, including a secular decline in economic growth, a rise in savings relative to GDP, a corresponding decline in real interest rates, and, in part, changes in wealth inequality.
This paper lays out one potential step-by-step path toward decarbonizing Saudi Arabia, imagining a sweeping restructuring of a fossil fuel-driven society and economy.
Jim Krane, the Wallace S. Wilson Fellow for Energy Studies, argues that Saudi Aramco’s quest to remain the “last man standing” in global oil depends not just on its substantial cost advantages. Declining social acceptance of fossil fuel combustion suggests that Aramco’s pursuit of carbon competitiveness will assume growing importance.
The authors evaluate Argentina’s energy sector and test the hypothesis that investments in tight oil and shale gas extraction expose investors to fewer risks than extracting conventional oil and gas.
This working paper is part of a series titled “The Role of Foreign Direct Investment in Resource-Rich Regions.”
Gabriel Collins, Mark P. Jones, Jim Krane, Kenneth B. Medlock III, Francisco J. MonaldiFebruary 24, 2020
Energy fellow Jim Krane investigates the strategy of “security through investment,” in which states deliberately use foreign direct investment to balance against a regional hegemon.
This working paper is part of a series titled “The Role of Foreign Direct Investment in Resource-Rich Regions.”
Given that policymakers will eventually need to decide how to resolve the social security program’s projected shortfall, this paper presents a simulation-based approach to evaluating the conventional alternatives of adjustments to benefits or taxes.
This working paper looks at less explored climate strategies that Saudi Arabia and other producer states have taken or may take in the next few years to maintain the continuity of oil exports amid the emergence of restrictions on fossil fuels.
Since the progressivity of the sales tax is difficult to directly measure, this paper introduces an indirect approach combining simulated household income with realizations of consumption behavior from survey data.