This working paper studies optimal taxation in a dynamic stochastic economy in which there is uncertainty about the effects of climate change. It concludes that model uncertainty has significant quantitative implications regarding optimal greenhouse gas emissions and the optimal mix of fossil fuel used.

This working paper is one of a series submitted for the Oct. 1, 2015, Baker Institute event "Currency Policy Then and Now: 30th Anniversary of the Plaza Accord."

Using Texas as a case study, this paper addresses which policies are desirable to best manage and regulate the supply of brackish groundwater.

In this paper, author Peter Hartley examines the recent evolution of markets for LNG, focusing especially on the increasing amount of LNG being traded spot or under short-term contracts of less than four-years duration. Hartley argues that explanations for this increase, and other recent changes in LNG trading, imply that the proportion of LNG being traded under long-term contracts is likely to continue to decline and that the flexibility of long-term contracts for trading LNG is likely to continue to increase.

While much has been made in recent years about the increasing liquidity and size of a spot market for liquefied natural gas, most LNG is still sold under confidential, long-term contracts. In fact, in 2013, according to data from the International Group of Liquefied Natural Gas Importers, 73 percent of all LNG trades took place under long-term contracts, which are especially prevalent in Asian markets. Despite the fact that this constitutes an enormous trade, there is very little transparency about how prices are specified, what actual transaction prices are or when pricing terms change. Using publicly available customs data on 16 different trade routes of the largest importers of LNG, graduate fellow Mark Agerton applies econometric techniques to estimate and characterize the empirical relationship between LNG import prices and crude oil prices.

This working paper constructs a new general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy that is better able to analyze energy and gross receipts taxes than previous models.

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Abstract

The global "great recession" was…

A working paper that reveals some of the possible new directions in U.S. NGLs and their future use in world markets. By Al Troner, president of Asia Pacific Energy Consulting.

Published Feb. 2013 as a Cambridge Electricity Policy Research Group/Economics working paper.