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239 Results
Middle East
Winter Is Coming: Controlled Conflicts and the Oil-price Geopolitical-risk Premium
This paper presents a simple dynamic growth model of investment, consumption, passive military spending, and active military spending for an oil-exporting country. It argues that under conditions of significant geopolitical strife, a country might engage in a military conflict of limited scope and extent to drive up oil prices and revenues.
Mahmoud A. El-Gamal November 21, 2016
Middle East
Israel and the Arab Gulf States: Drivers and Directions of Change
A set of common interests (if not values) has emerged in Israel and the GCC states in the turbulent aftermath of the 2011 Arab uprisings and the 2015 Iranian nuclear agreement. Framing both is a sense of bewilderment felt equally in Jerusalem and in GCC capitals at U.S. policies in the Middle East under the Obama administration. While it remains unlikely that direct diplomatic relations will be established between Israel and GCC states in the near future, regional realignments are expanding the scope for unofficial contact and tangible cooperation in numerous policy spheres.
Kristian Coates Ulrichsen September 19, 2016
Map of the Middle East region
Meaningful Change or False Dawn: Policymaking in an Age of Austerity
A new generation is taking office in the Gulf as a cadre of ambitious, young ruling family members and technocrats have emerged in Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. In this journal article, fellow Kristian Coates Ulrichsen analyzes the challenges facing this generation in light of the recent collapse in world oil prices.
Kristian Coates Ulrichsen June 13, 2016