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61 Results
Middle East
Winter Is Coming: Controlled Conflicts and the Oil-price Geopolitical-risk Premium
This paper presents a simple dynamic growth model of investment, consumption, passive military spending, and active military spending for an oil-exporting country. It argues that under conditions of significant geopolitical strife, a country might engage in a military conflict of limited scope and extent to drive up oil prices and revenues.
Mahmoud A. El-Gamal November 21, 2016
Middle East
Israel and the Arab Gulf States: Drivers and Directions of Change
A set of common interests (if not values) has emerged in Israel and the GCC states in the turbulent aftermath of the 2011 Arab uprisings and the 2015 Iranian nuclear agreement. Framing both is a sense of bewilderment felt equally in Jerusalem and in GCC capitals at U.S. policies in the Middle East under the Obama administration. While it remains unlikely that direct diplomatic relations will be established between Israel and GCC states in the near future, regional realignments are expanding the scope for unofficial contact and tangible cooperation in numerous policy spheres.
Kristian Coates Ulrichsen September 19, 2016
Map of Middle East.
Gulf Airlines and the Changing Map of Global Aviation
The startling rise of Emirates, Etihad, and Qatar Airways has reshaped global aviation markets around the three hubs of Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Doha as the Gulf airlines have developed into what the Economist magazine has labelled “global super-connectors” capable of connecting any two points in the world with one stopover in the Gulf.Can the Gulf can sustain three aggressively expanding airlines within such a concentrated region (and market)?
Kristian Coates Ulrichsen June 24, 2015
US flag drapes around Middle East regional map
Rethinking U.S. Strategy in the Middle East
What strategy should the U.S. pursue in confronting ISIL and addressing the broader challenges of Iraq, Syria, Iran, Yemen, stability in the Persian Gulf, and the ever-present Israeli-Palestinian dispute? Leadership and engagement play a part, of course, but they must be subservient to a U.S. strategy whose objective is to protect and, if possible, advance our core interests in the region.
Joe Barnes, Andrew Bowen June 19, 2015