The United States appears less exposed to geopolitical risks affecting its oil supply than at any time since the early 1970s due to fracking, climate change and a more diverse energy supply, according to research by energy fellow Jim Krane and Kenneth B. Medlock, senior director of the Center for Energy Studies.
A combination of factors is encouraging Saudi Arabia to consider raising crude oil production capacity beyond the current ceiling of 12.5 million barrels per day. However, an increase in Saudi crude oil production would have consequences for markets and competing forms of energy, as well as for the kingdom's geopolitical stature, writes fellow Jim Krane in an article for Energy Policy.
Krane finds that the coal industry is at greater risk of being targeted by climate-related regulation amid decreasing social acceptance of its use, while the oil industry faces reduced risks due to its lack of substitutes.
Jim Krane, fellow in energy studies, examines how reforms to subsidy programs and increases in gas and electricity prices could lower energy use in the GCC.
Saudi Arabia's role in global energy markets is changing. The kingdom is diverting crude oil into an expanding refining sector and moving beyond its role as global “swing supplier” of crude oil, writes Jim Krane.
Rising populations and growing wealth have coupled with low domestic prices to propel huge increases in energy consumption within the six Gulf Cooperation Council countries, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman and Bahrain. The trend of large and continuing increases in demand threatens assumptions about the sustainability of the region’s oil exports Politically difficult reforms that moderate consumption can extend the longevity of exports, and perhaps, the regimes themselves.
"Time appears ripe for an energy-for-security exchange between member states of NATO and those of the energy-exporting Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)," writes Jim Krane, Wallace S. Wilson Fellow for Energy Studies. "Closer ties between the two regions could deepen Europe’s involvement in the security of its energy supply, while boosting the hard security of the Gulf’s Western-allied monarchies."
Countries around the Persian Gulf are falling behind with regard to renewables, both for technical and for political reasons. And they need to diversify — just like the rest of us — if they are going to keep local consumption from using up too much of the oil they would rather sell.
