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Our Report for 2024

The 2024 Mexico Country Outlook report analyzes key policy issues ahead of the June 2024 elections, which could be a critical inflection point for democracy in the country. In addition to all 628 seats in Mexico’s legislature, voters will elect a new president — with ruling party candidate Claudia Sheinbaum, a former mayor of Mexico City, and opposition rival Xóchitl Gálvez, a former senator, heading the race. With Sheinbaum’s candidacy, the legacy of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador will loom large on the ballot. 

Our report for 2024 considers various electoral scenarios, assessing their likelihood and potential implications for governance, the economy, public safety, and more. Our experts also review prospects for industry and foreign investment in Mexico, predicting that high levels of violence, weak infrastructure, and an uncertain political and regulatory environment will pose significant challenges despite promising nearshoring opportunities and incentives.

We forecast that migration and organized crime will continue to be major points of tension for U.S.-Mexico relations, particularly ahead of the elections on both sides of the border.
 

Read the report

About the Mexico Country Outlook

The Mexico Country Outlook is an annual conference and report designed to unpack the major policy issues facing Mexico in the year ahead. Presented by the Baker Institute Center for the U.S. and Mexico, it provides a strategic edge to investors, businesses, and policymakers as they navigate Mexico’s complex, ever-evolving political and regulatory landscape.

Each year, the conference brings together influential leaders and top thinkers from industry, government, and academia to contribute valuable insights and dive deep into Mexico’s politics, economy, border issues, energy affairs, and more. Audiences include business leaders, policymakers, academics, and students who are passionate about Mexican public policy issues and U.S.-Mexico relations — presenting a rich opportunity to expand networks, exchange diverse perspectives, and remain ahead of the curve. 

The annual conference features:

  • Keynotes from renowned Mexican and U.S. thought leaders.
  • Insights on key Mexican policy issues and drivers shaping business environments.
  • Exclusive early access to the annual Mexico Country Outlook report.

Conference: Mexico Country Outlook 2024

Thursday, Dec. 7, 2023
@ Rice University’s Baker Hall

The fifth annual Mexico Country Outlook, presented by the Baker Institute on Dec. 7, 2023, explored critical issues facing Mexico and their impact on U.S.-Mexico relations. Speakers examined Mexico’s politics, economy, business and regulatory environment, and public safety and security landscape.

This year’s program featured keynote remarks from Jesús Silva-Herzog Márquez, Mexican political commentator, essayist, and researcher at the Tecnológico de Monterrey, and David Garza, president of the Tecnológico de Monterrey. CEOs and experts from across industry, government, and academia provided additional insight through a series of panel discussions. Each session ended with a brief Q&A.

Conference attendees received early access to the Mexico Country Outlook 2024 report.

A full agenda is available here.

    More Details

    Keynote Speakers

    David Garza, Ph.D.
    President, Tecnológico de Monterrey

    Jesús Silva-Herzog Márquez
    Professor, Political Sciences, School of Social Sciences and Government, Tecnológico de Monterrey

    Panelists

    1. Liliana Alvarado
      Executive Director, Ethos Public Policy Lab
    2. Lorena Becerra, Ph.D.
      CEO, Lorena Becerra Encuestas
    3. Donald Bowers
      Vice President, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Houston Branch
    4. Alma Caballero
      Managing Director, McLarty Associates
    5. Ricardo Fernández-Mazarambroz
      Director, Business and Government Banking Network, BBVA
    6. David A. Gantz, J.D., J.S.M.
      Will Clayton Fellow in Trade and International Economics, Baker Institute
    7. Pablo González Guajardo
      CEO, Kimberly Clark de México
    8. Jorge Gonzalez Henrichsen
      Co-CEO, Nearshore Company
    9. Roger Gonzalez Lau
      CEO, Grupo Protexa
    10. Guilherme Loureiro
      Executive Director and CEO, Walmart Mexico and Central America
    11. Luis Lozano Olivares
      President, Toyota México
    12. Francisco Monroy
      Director of Sales and Distribution, La Moderna; Chairman, Interamerican Foods Corporation
    13. Tony Payan, Ph.D.
      Françoise and Edward Djerejian Fellow for Mexico Studies; Director, Center for the U.S. and Mexico, Baker Institute
    14. Jennifer Pierce
      President, TC Energía
    15. Claudia Reyes Armebianchi
      General Manager for Mexico and Central America, Western Union
    16. Raul B. Rodriguez
      Nonresident Fellow, Baker Institute; Former Associate Vice President for International Affairs, Tecnológico de Monterrey
    17. Jesús Rodríguez Dávalos
      Founding Partner, Rodríguez Dávalos Abogados
    18. Emilio Romano
      Managing Director, Bank of America Merrill Lynch México
    19. Ivan Van der Walt
      CEO, Mexico Pacific
    20. Richard Vaughan 
      CEO, Alloy Capital
    21. Pablo Zarate
      FTI Consulting
    22. Leo Zuckermann
      Journalist, Excelsior and Foro TV

    Registration

    This conference was open to the public. U.S.-Mexico Forum members, Baker Roundtable members, and Rice MGA and MBA students received discounted admission through the link in their email invitation.

    Individual Tickets
    General Public — $250
    Rice MBA and MGA Students — $150
    Baker Roundtable Member — $150
    U.S.-Mexico Forum Member — Free


    To discuss how to become a U.S.-Mexico Forum member, contact Lisa Guáqueta, program manager, at lguaqueta@rice.edu or 713-348-2649. Contact the Baker Institute Development team at roundtable@rice.edu for more information on the benefits of joining the Baker Roundtable.

    Conference Levels of Support and Benefits

    For assistance, contact Lisa Guáqueta at lguaqueta@rice.edu or 713-348-2649.

    $20,000+ — Platinum

    • Complimentary one-year membership to the U.S.-Mexico Forum (Director’s Circle Level).
    • Complimentary one-year membership to the Baker Roundtable (Diplomat Level).
    • Complimentary conference registration for up to 10 guests.
    • Corporate logo recognition on the Mexico Country Outlook 2024 report.
    • Corporate logo recognition on the Mexico Country Outlook 2024 conference slates.
    • Recognition from podium at the Mexico Country Outlook 2024 conference.

    $10,000 — Gold

    • Complimentary one-year membership to the U.S.-Mexico Forum (Partner Level).
    • Complimentary conference registration for up to five guests.
    • Corporate logo recognition on the Mexico Country Outlook 2024 report.
    • Corporate logo recognition on the Mexico Country Outlook 2024 conference slates.
    • Recognition from podium at the Mexico Country Outlook 2024 conference.

    $5,000 — Silver

    • Complimentary one-year membership to the U.S.-Mexico Forum (Friend Level).
    • Complimentary conference registration for two guests.
    • Name recognition on the Mexico Country Outlook 2024 report.
    • Name recognition on the Mexico Country Outlook 2024 conference slates.
    • Recognition from podium at the Mexico Country Outlook 2024 conference.

    Past Events

    Center for the U.S. and Mexico | Dec. 7, 2023
    Mexico Country Outlook 2024
    Center for the U.S. and Mexico | Dec. 8, 2022
    Mexico Country Outlook 2023
    Center for the U.S. and Mexico | Dec. 9, 2021
    Mexico Country Outlook 2022
    Center for the U.S. and Mexico | Dec. 15, 2020
    Mexico Country Outlook 2021
    Center for the U.S. and Mexico | Jan. 9, 2020
    Mexico Country Outlook 2020

    Past Reports

    Mexico Country Outlook 2023

    Drawing on decades of study and analysis of Mexico, experts from the Center for the U.S. and Mexico made several key conclusions for 2023. They forecasted that projects pushed by President Andrés Manuel López Obrador and a possible U.S. recession would slow Mexican economic growth, that conflict between organized crime groups would escalate, and that the U.S. would continue to pressure Mexico on full implementation of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, immigration, and drug smuggling, among other predictions.

    Read the report

    Mexico Country Outlook 2022

    Center experts predicted that three major issues would dominate Mexico’s economy, politics, and relationship with the United States in 2022. They forecasted that President Andrés Manuel López Obrador would continue to exert power in an increasingly autocratic fashion, creating uncertainty in the country’s business environment; that MORENA’s losses in the June 2021 midterms would lead López Obrador to try to dismantle Mexico’s electoral system; and that U.S. President Joe Biden would increase pressure on Mexico to collaborate on key binational policy issues.

    Read the report

    Mexico Country Outlook 2021

    Four factors were likely to drive Mexico’s outlook for 2021, Baker Institute experts found. These included increasingly centralized executive power and a weakened system of checks and balances; the economic shock and public health repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic; the country’s June 2021 midterm elections; and the 2020 U.S. presidential election loss of Donald Trump, who had been a key pillar of support for President Andrés Manuel López Obrador.

    Read the report

    Mexico Country Outlook 2020

    In the inaugural Mexico Country Outlook report, experts from the Center for the U.S. and Mexico analyzed the influence of Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador on Mexico’s political, economic, regulatory, social, and security environment. Elected in December 2018, López Obrador’s political and policy preferences profoundly affected not only the country’s present, but its long-term future, they wrote.

    Read the report