The Energy Forum of the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy is convening the second in a series of workshops examining the changing geopolitics of natural gas. This workshop will include a presentation of findings from the new Department of Energy sponsored study "Shale Gas and U.S. National Security" and a discussion of the Rice World Gas Trade Model reference case being developed for the newly launched study "The Changing Geopolitics of Natural Gas."
The workshop will examine the effect of the recent revelations about shale gas on various U.S. national interests. This is done by comparing a reference case, in which all known shale gas plays are available for exploitation, to a counterfactual case in which the state of knowledge about shale gas remains suspended at the level of the late 1990s. The implications for global natural gas market developments are profound, with clear winners and losers in the international gas arena.
The purpose of this second workshop is also to present the preliminary modeling approach for the new study "The Changing Geopolitics of Gas," which carries forward elements of previous Baker Institute work, but also considers the role of long-term contracts more explicitly. This allows, among other things, the identification of potential inefficiencies in the natural gas market that may signal impending change. There will also be a discussion of the various constraints that are being considered regarding the timing and availability of various infrastructures in light of the geopolitical pressures that currently exist, an exercise informed by the previous workshop in this series.
10:30 am Coffee Break