Is the U.S. headed for a recession? History tells us a near-term recession is unlikely — but emergent threats like unregulated crypto exchanges and U.S. debt servicing necessitate further measures to mitigate economic risk, writes public finance fellow Jorge Barro.
Although Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador is confident that measures implemented in the first half of his tenure will help Mexico to achieve energy self-sufficiency, his optimism must be weighed against the evidence, writes nonresident scholar Adrian Duhalt. In this brief, Duhalt explains the flaws in López Obrador’s plan and why Mexico is unlikely to achieve energy self-sufficiency anytime soon.
In this issue brief, public finance fellow Jorge Barro finds that lower state income taxation is associated with higher net taxpayer migration. Further, Barro explains that since the passage of the 2017 tax reform, taxpayers and earnings potential have both migrated to lower-taxing states at a faster rate.
Although once known for its robust urea and ammonia production capabilities, Mexico found itself particularly vulnerable to soaring international fertilizer prices in 2021. With the global circumstances surrounding the spike in prices likely to linger through 2022, and Mexico's state-owned infrastructure still hampered by technical issues, the impact could be borne all the way to dinner tables in the form of higher nutrient prices for local farmers and food inflation.
The dramatic electoral defeat of Morocco’s Islamist PJD party last fall signaled a major shift in the region’s politics: Islamist parties have become politically vulnerable and must deliver results or face the wrath of voters.
Millions of undocumented immigrants have lived in the U.S. for decades and become part of America's fabric. This brief makes the case for prioritizing their legalization — and shows how it can be done.
Middle East fellow A.Kadir Yildirim reviews the varied responses of Islamist groups in the Middle East to the Biden presidency and suggests that, in most cases, their reactions were crafted to further their political — not religious — objectives.
In this brief, public finance fellow Jorge Barro explains some of the long-term economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and argues that policymakers can prepare for the impending macroeconomic shortfalls by maintaining a commitment to improving education, prioritizing immigration and resolving fiscal imbalances.
