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CHAPTER TWO
GENERAL
The shock and confusion in Syria following the
regional and global developments of the early 1990s, especially the
recognition of American technological and military supremacy and the
consequent difficulty of achieving strategic balance with Israel, led
to a strategic decision in Damascus to seek accommodation with the
Jewish state. Of course, it would have to be on Syria’s terms: Israeli
withdrawal to the June 4, 1967 lines; a relatively rapid timetable for
withdrawal; minimal security arrangements; and strictly limited
normalization, both in substance and in the pace of its
development.
Therefore, virtually no Syrian "confidence
building measures" (CBM) towards Israel were taken. The few that were,
allowing Syrian Jews to leave, an interview Syria’s foreign minister
granted to Israel Television in 1995 and talks in 1994 and 1995 between
the chiefs of staff of the two armies, made little impression on
Israeli public opinion. In 1994, there was an attempt at military CBM
(clearing the Syrian limited forces zone of infringements) but it was
not done in a political context and was not exploited by the Syrians to
develop the CBM dimension so necessary for creating a positive
negotiating atmosphere. On the contrary, Israelis remained concerned at
Syria’s policy of operating terrorist organizations in Lebanon by
"remote control," and by its attempts to undermine moves in the Arab
world towards normalization with Israel. Moreover, the Syrian regime
was seen as not doing nearly enough to prepare public opinion at home
for a possible peace with Israel.
Complicating matters further, negotiations
between Israel and Syria were intermittent and dogged by extreme
caution. Throughout, Syria exhibited "strategic steadfastness" - which,
in practice, meant waiting for flexibility on the Israeli side. For its
part, Israel refused to clarify its position on withdrawal from the
Golan Heights, and insisted on a wide-ranging security approach..
Still, at various times during Rabin’s term (August 1993 and November
1994), and when Peres was prime minister (late 1995 and early 1996),
there seemed to be progress. But, it was never translated into the
basis of an agreement.
The negotiation after Rabin’s assassination in
November 1995, took place at the Wye Plantation near Washington, with
the Syrians under the impression that an eventual Israeli withdrawal
from the Golan was the basic premise under which the talks were being
held. They therefore agreed to modify their position in a number of
areas: normalization; comprehensiveness of the agreement, (that it
would mean peace between Israel and all the other Arab states including
Lebanon, and that it would not be dependent on any other accord, for
example, agreement with the Palestinians); economic issues, (especially
a parallel international economic package to facilitate bilateral
development and economic cooperation). But there were still deep
differences on security issues, where the Syrians favored a limited
security regime, both with regard to the area it would cover, and with
minimal real or perceived infringements of Syrian sovereignty. The
water issue was not dealt with in depth, and there was still sufficient
residual vagueness about the Golan withdrawal to make a breakthrough
difficult.
Still, the final rounds of negotiation in 1995
and 1996 helped to pinpoint the differences and contributed to a better
understanding of each side’s positions. Moreover, the nature of the
talks was open and businesslike. The lack of progress was partly
explained by the fact that the parties were awaiting the results of the
Israeli election set for June 1996, in the hope that afterwards the
talks would swing into top gear.
But after Netanyahu’s election, the opposite
occurred, and the talks were suspended. The deadlock was over the point
from which negotiations should be resumed, with the Syrians demanding
that they be renewed on the basis of understandings already reached,
and not from a new starting point. The Israelis argued that
understandings reached with the Rabin and Peres governments had never
been committed to paper and that the new government was not bound by
them.
MAIN STAGES OF THE NEGOTIATIONS
I do not intend in this chapter to attempt a
detailed description of the Israel-Syria negotiations since Madrid.(10)
But it is important to summarize the main developments so that we can
ascertain at what point the talks were broken off, learn from past
experience and establish a basis for future dialogue.
It is important to point out that Asad negotiated
with no less than three Israeli prime ministers, Shamir, Rabin and
Peres, and that Ehud Barak will be the fourth to hold a public dialogue
with the Syrian leader. It will therefore be instructive to look at the
negotiations from the different personal standpoints of the various
leaders, especially on the Israeli side.
The bilateral talks began in Madrid on November
3, 1991, with the first face to face meeting between Israeli and Syrian
delegations, albeit in the presence of a third party. The talks went
ahead despite a vehement Syrian attack on Israel’s Prime Minister
Yitzhak Shamir at the gala opening of the conference, in which Syrian
Foreign Minster Farouk Al-Shar‘a denigrated Shamir as a
"terrorist."
During the Shamir period (November 1991 - 30
April 1992) there were 21 meetings between the delegations. The
negotiations were based on the letter of invitation to the Madrid
conference by the American and Soviet co-sponsors, who expressed their
readiness to help the parties achieve a just, lasting and comprehensive
peace through direct negotiations, based on Security Council
Resolutions 242 and 338, and with the ultimate goal of achieving "real
peace."
The letter of invitation was backed by American
"letters of assurances." In the letter to Israel, the U.S. emphasized
concrete elements of peace and security, noting, for example, Israel’s
right to secure and defensible borders, and reiterating President
Ford’s 1975 commitment on the Golan Heights, which stated:
"The U.S. will give great weight to Israel’s
position that any peace agreement with Syria must be predicated on
Israel’s remaining on the Golan Heights."
In the letter of assurances to Syria, Washington
stressed its support for the principle of "land for peace," adding
that, in the American view, it applied to the Golan Heights as well.
The Americans repeated their opposition to the application of Israeli
law on the Golan, and promised to faithfully play the role of honest
broker. On the other hand, in his Madrid Conference address, Bush used
the term "territorial compromise," which upset the Syrians.
But the talks during Shamir’s tenure (until May
1992), got nowhere for several reasons:
- There were wide gaps in the fundamental views and opening positions
of the parties. This was further exacerbated by ill-humored verbal
clashes between the negotiating teams.
- Israel sought primarily to keep up the appearance of negotiations
to avert a crisis which might impact negatively on the parallel
Jordanian and Palestinian tracks. Shamir’s formula was "peace for
peace," whereas the Syrians, brandishing Resolution 242, tried to focus
the debate on Israeli withdrawal.
- The Americans kept a very low profile and were happy just to see
the talks continuing. The differences were too deep for them to make
bridging proposals.
- The talks were open and well-reported, with the emphasis on form
rather than substance.
As the talks evolved, working documents touching
on the notion of a peace treaty were exchanged. But the two sides stuck
to their basic positions: Syria saw the negotiations as talks about
withdrawal, and argued that the pull-back would in itself create a
peace dynamic, whereas Israel insisted on first negotiating the terms
of peace and normalization in fine detail.
During Rabin’s term as prime minister, there were
a number of significant developments:
- Between August 92 and September 93, Israel and Syria tried to draft
a joint Declaration of Principles. Israel announced that it accepted in
principle that Resolution 242 applied to the Golan, and undertook to
detail the extent of the ensuing withdrawal after receiving
clarifications from Syria on the nature of the peace. Israel insisted
that agreement with Syria not be dependent on other tracks and that its
security needs be guaranteed. The Syrians insisted on full withdrawal.
In any event, the signing in August 1993 of a Declaration of Principles
(D.O.P.) between Israel and the PLO left the Syrian track high and dry
with no breakthrough in sight.
- Between the Spring of 1994 and the Summer of 1995, an intensive
mutual effort was made, with American assistance, to break the
deadlock. It was during this period that Rabin put forward his "4 legs
of the table" theory, that the negotiations should focus and progress
simultaneously on four key, inter-related issues.
- Security arrangements
- Normalization
- Borders
- Stages of withdrawal
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In April 1994, Rabin presented a practical
proposal to the Americans. He said he was ready to commit to withdrawal
in stages, over a period of a few years, with the first stage a token
pullback from the Druze villages on the Golan. The Syrians were urged
to respond with commitments of their own, and to start implementing the
process of normalization after the first Israeli withdrawal. There were
several relevant issues on the normalization and security agendas:
Exchange of ambassadors, free movement of tourists, air, sea, trade and
cultural links, demilitarization of the entire Golan and beyond (up to
the approaches to Damascus), the creation of further limited forces
areas, securing the supply of water to Israel from the Golan, and the
prevention of terror from Lebanon.
In the ensuing dialogue, held under American
auspices, the Syrians demanded an Israeli commitment to withdraw to the
June 4, 1967 lines. According to various reports, Rabin expressed
readiness to the Americans to consider withdrawal from the Golan, if
Israeli security needs and normalization demands were met. Israeli
sources say he was deliberately vague, and expressed his position in
terms of a conditional hypothesis for American consumption only. The
Americans, however, passed it on to Asad without Rabin’s approval. When
he learned what had happened, he was furious.
The Syrians argued later that Israel had conveyed
its readiness to withdraw to the June 4 lines to the Americans as a
kind of deposit (11), which, in fact, made the continuation of
negotiations between Israel and Syria possible, and paved the way for
the meetings of the chiefs of staff in Washington, as well as the
"Non-Paper" drafted by the US and which reflected agreements on
security issues.
There were two rounds of talks between the chiefs
of staff, the first in December 1994, (Barak-Shihabi), and the second
in June 1995 (Shachak-Shihabi). The first ended with the parties deeply
divided over security issues, after the Israelis argued for a
significant demilitarization as well as an Israeli presence on the
Golan. The second meeting also focused on security arrangements, but
the atmosphere was better. Shihabi declared that the ratio of
demilitarization on both sides of the border would be 10:6 in Israel’s
favor, which constituted a softening of the Syrian position, after
their initial insistence on absolute symmetry in the security
arrangements.
It was between these two meetings that the
Non-Paper was drafted with American assistance. Entitled "A paper of
understandings on the issue of security arrangements," it was made up
of two elements: Aims and Principles. The aims were to reduce to a
minimum the threat of surprise attack, to prevent daily friction along
the border and to minimize the risk of wider conflagration or all-out
war.
As to the principles, it was agreed that security
of one side would not be at the expense of the other, that the security
arrangements would be equal, mutual and reciprocal, and that if, during
the negotiations, it became clear that implementation of the equality
principle in a specific case was difficult or impossible for
topographical reasons, experts from both sides would discuss the
problem and solve it. It was also agreed that the arrangements would
have to be compatible with the sovereignty and territorial integrity of
both sides, and be limited to "relevant areas" on both sides of the
border.(12)
In the meantime, staff work on security conducted
in Israel interpreted and fleshed out the Non-Paper. The results were
summarized in June 1995 in the so-called "Shtauber Document," (named
for the Brigadier-General, who headed strategic planning in the IDF’s
planning division) which, although leaked to the press, reflected an
objective, professional and not a political assessment, (it was not
meant for publication) and hence its special importance. The "Shtauber
Document" was published in its entirety in the Israeli press (Yediot
Aharonot, June 29, 1995) and it enumerated the Israeli principles and
components of security arrangements as follows:
- The need for a "package" of security arrangements, which would
include a demilitarized buffer zone, limited forces zones, and elements
of verification and supervision (including a predominant American
element), the aim of which would be to place political obstacles in the
way of any decision to advance military forces to the Golan.
- Any change in one or more of the above components would have to be
compensated for by others. The document emphasized that if Israel were
to be satisfied on the question of retaining its early warning and
intelligence capabilities on the Golan, (by implication through its
early warning station on Mount Hermon), it would be able to be more
flexible on the question of the limited forces zones. In reference to
the Hermon station, the document argued that the IDF must continue to
get information that can only be received through its present Hermon
deployment, and that it would necessary to discuss the various
possibilities for doing so.
- The security arrangements must guarantee that there would be no
advantage to be gained by the side starting a war over the side
defending itself, and allow enough time for Israel to mobilize its
reserves. The operative conclusion would be keeping the large
concentrations of both armies far apart from each other, or
alternatively, or as a supplement, reducing their battle readiness,
increasing transparency and creating relations of trust between the
armies.
- Prohibiting hostile military cooperation against one of the parties
to the agreement, for example, through hostile military alliances or
calling in foreign expeditionary forces.
- Isolating and withholding aid from elements conducting hostile
activities against the other side and/or against the peace process.
(The reference is to the terrorist elements to which Syria grants safe
haven).
In any event, this paper is the only mutually
agreed written document produced by the parties since Madrid. But
although it created a basis for discussion, the interpretations given
it by the two sides were vastly different. The Syrians preferred to
cite mainly to the principles, and less the aims. They argued that the
security arrangements were only applicable to the "relevant areas,"
(that is to two thin and equal strips of land on each side of the 1967
border). Israel, on the other hand, wanted several demilitarized or
thinned out strips, deep in Syrian territory.
In general, we can say that during Rabin’s
tenure, the negotiations with Syria were conducted slowly and
cautiously, and that, during this time, Israel made far more progress
on other tracks. It signed a peace treaty with Jordan (October 1994),
and another interim agreement with the Palestinians (September 1995).
Nevertheless:
- The very fact that channels between Israel and Syria were kept open
was important.
- The Syrians believed they had gained a significant achievement in
the shape of an Israeli commitment to withdraw from the Golan.
- Israel made a gain in principle with the Syrian Chief of Staff’s
acceptance of the 10:6 ratio in the depth of the demilitarized zones on
both sides of the border, which constituted a softening of the initial
Syrian demand for absolute symmetry.
- It was the first time the two countries had been able (with
American help) to draft a security non-paper on the basis of which they
were able to hold a series of discussions on security
arrangements.
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THE NEGOTIATIONS DURING PERES’S TERM; DECEMBER
’95 - MARCH ‘96
Between December 95 and March 96, Israeli and
Syrian delegations conducted three rounds of negotiations at the Wye
Plantation in Maryland. There were bilateral sessions, trilateral
sessions with the US, and private meetings between members of the
delegations. The Israeli delegation was headed by Foreign Ministry
Director General Uri Savir and the Syrian by their Ambassador to
Washington, Walid Mu’allim. Dennis Ross co-ordinated the American
team.
The focus was on a new approach that the Israelis
put to the Syrians. (13) They presented a new, extensive Peres-inspired
package, which deviated from the old land for peace framework. It was
designed to inject an element of potential profit for both Israel and
Syria, which would result from a convergence of bilateral interests,
through regional arrangements and an international aid package.
The new Israeli ideas meant raising the American
profile, holding the talks in Washington for longer periods and adding
new elements to Rabin’s "four legs of the table." The main additions
were the comprehensiveness and regional nature of the agreement, the
international package to underpin it, the focus on economic
development, the search for a regional solution to the water issue, and
having the solutions to each problem spread over a time axis.
There were signs of progress on a number of key
issues:
- Normalization - the Syrians were ready to
make progress on 12 of the 18 areas of normalization proposed by
Israel, including postal, air, trade and investment links, and the
opening of embassies. But they shied away from anything that might
involve an active development of ties, for example cultural and
agricultural ties, arguing that they had no such agreements with any
other state.
- Comprehensiveness of the agreement - the
Israelis maintained that an Israeli - Syrian peace should be part of a
comprehensive regional arrangement, heralding the end of the
Israeli-Arab conflict (and, of course, the end of Israel’s conflict
with Lebanon), and that it should not be dependent on other agreements,
such as permanent settlement with the Palestinians. The Syrians
endorsed this position, and expressed satisfaction at the recognition
of Syria’s pivotal role in the Arab world.
- The regional system - for the first time in
the long history of negotiations between them, the parties exchanged
views on the regional system and common regional interests, like the
containment of fundamentalism. The Syrians promised to help advance
Israel’s relations with the Arab world.
- International aid package - Israel urged that
the two countries work together for an international package which
would include bilateral and multilateral projects for developing the
Golan Heights, as well as foreign aid for Syria, including debt
waiving, with the Americans slated to lead the international effort.
Indeed, the Americans started promoting the international economic
effort as part of an international commitment to the prosperity of the
countries of the region.
- Water - The problem was dealt with in a very
general way, and it was agreed that the U.S. would raise the issue with
other parties in the region, mainly Turkey, on the assumption that they
should seek ways to meet both Israeli and Syrian needs. The initial
feelers drew strong reservations in Ankara, with the Turks coming out
strongly against any linkage between the dispute over the waters of the
Euphrates and peace in the Middle East. The Turkish Foreign Ministry
even released a statement to the effect that no contribution to peace
in the Middle East could come at Turkey’s expense, and that "the waters
of the Euphrates are not up for discussion in the peace process."(14)
Today, however, things have changed, and the Turkish attitude to the
problem of water in the regional context is more positive.
- Borders - The question of borders
and withdrawal was not discussed in the talks although the Syrians
asserted that in their view the talks were being held under the working
hypothesis of a full Israeli withdrawal. Ambassador Mu’allim even
claimed later that "Rabin’s commitment to a full Israeli withdrawal was
confirmed by Peres."(15)
During the Wye talks a businesslike discussion on
a range of security issues was launched. The negotiating teams included
senior officers, with the focus of the debate on the "relevant areas,"
as defined in the 1995 non-paper. The Syrians argued that their view of
the concept meant limited demilitarized zones on both sides of the
border and limited forces zones (in the Kuneitra and Sefad areas only).
They sought to marginalize the security arrangements, and stressed the
notions of equality and symmetry. Their main message was "peace is
security." Israel, as in the past, argued for far more extensive
limited forces areas. There was an agreement in principle on a
demilitarized zone, with only policemen and no military personnel, and
a deeper limited forces zone in which the deployment of armed forces
would be restricted. Israel proposed adding a "third zone," in which
the offensive capacities of the armies would be limited, but the
Syrians ignored this. The Syrian press complained that Israel was
"exaggerating" its security concerns for domestic reasons, and ignoring
its nuclear capability.(16)
Both delegations also conducted negotiations with
the Americans, in which the Syrians expressed their desire for improved
ties with Washington, and for future American economic and military
assistance. In parallel, Israel and the U.S. conducted initial talks on
raising the level of strategic cooperation between them, in the context
of an Israel- Syria peace, and the Israeli side made clear its
expectation of extensive American aid. The talks, however, were broken
off in March 1996 after a string of terrorist attacks in Israel, and
were not resumed after the Israeli elections in May that year. Since
then, there have been no substantive negotiations between Israel and
Syria.
DEVELOPMENTS SINCE WYE AND THE ARGUMENT OVER THE
POINT AT WHICH THE NEGOTIATIONS WERE STOPPED
Netanyahu’s victory in May 1996, and the
emergence of a right wing government in Israel created a new situation
with regard to the political process with Syria. The Netanyahu
government maintained that Israel was not committed to past
understandings, promises, summaries or interpretations. According to
press reports, Israel even managed to get a letter from Secretary of
State Christopher (at the start of 1997), in which he confirmed
Israel’s claim that the Non-Paper was not binding by international law.
These reports took the Syrians by surprise, and evoked an angry Syrian
response.
Given the deep differences between Israel and
Syria, the Syrians made an uncharacteristically strenuous effort to
present their view of the point at which the talks were broken off to
get international backing for their position. In a series of interviews
between 1996 and 1998, by Asad, Al-Shara, and Mu’allim, the following
points were stressed:
- Progress was achieved in the talks, including on the question of
normalization, and that had practical significance for any resumption
of the talks.
- Israel’s commitments and agreements were official and binding, and
there could be no going back on them.
- Israel’s main commitment - for a full withdrawal (to the June 4,
1967 lines) - was "deposited" with the U.S. The commitment was made
twice: First by Rabin, and afterwards confirmed by Peres.
- The talks at the Wye plantation were held under a mechanism of
writing down agreements between the parties, getting them confirmed by
the leaders and making them known to the Americans in the course of the
dialogue.
- The Non-Paper of May 1995 on security arrangements was valid and
binding.
- Syria was not to blame for missing an historic opportunity for a
breakthrough. Syria had sought an agreement within a relatively short,
but achievable, time frame (the target date was September 1996). But
the talks ran into difficulty because of Israeli Prime Minister Peres’s
insistence on calling elections,(17) and because of Israel’s
exaggerated normalization and security demands, (for example early
warning stations on the Golan.)
- Active involvement of the United States is important now to renew
the talks and to bridge the gaps once they get underway.
- Syria will not go back on its basic positions, first and foremost,
withdrawal to the June 4 lines. The Syrians repeated their argument
that the area between the international border of 1923 and the June 4
lines was negligible and devoid of any strategic significance for
Israel, whereas for Syria it entailed the principle of sovereignty
"over every meter of its land."(18)
- Insistence on the linkage between the Syrian and Lebanese tracks.
Syria continued to see comprehensive peace in terms of Syria and
Lebanon together making peace with Israel. During the past two years,
the Syrians took action to head off Israeli proposals for a "Lebanon
first approach."
- Syria opposes secret talks or talks at the top leadership
level.
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The Syrians seem to have held out some hope that
the Likud government would be able to create a domestic consensus in
Israel for peace moves that would entail an Israeli withdrawal from the
Golan. Thus, Mu’allim expressed the hope after the Hebron accord with
the Palestinians in January 1997, that Netanyahu, as the leader of the
right, might be able to get wide support in Israel for an agreement
with Syria. As time went by, however, the Syrian refrain grew
increasingly pessimistic, and their comments on the Netanyahu
government increasingly acrimonious.
After his election defeat in May 1999, Netanyahu
confirmed press reports on secret contacts between Israel and Syria
during his term, which, according to him, "did not bear fruit because
of differences over withdrawal from the Golan Heights and where the
permanent border line would run." Netanyahu hinted that the contacts,
which were conducted through the Omanis, European envoy Moratinos and
"private" mediators, produced gains for Israel, especially in the
security package. According to Netanyahu, the Syrians had agreed to
Israeli teams manning the early warning station on the Hermon for a few
years. The press in Israel quoted Israeli sources to the effect that
Netanyahu had agreed to a significant withdrawal, but had refused to
outline its exact dimensions.(19)
AT WHAT POINT WERE THE NEGOTIATIONS STOPPED?
Syrian Foreign Minister Al-Shara declared in
April 1999 that during the Labor government’s term, there were clear
signs of progress, with the U.S. help, on the question of full Israeli
withdrawal to the June 4, 1967 lines, and on the security Non-Paper.
That, Al-Shar‘a claimed, "constituted 80 percent of a peace
treaty."(20)
It is safe to assume that Al-Shar‘a’s comments,
released on the eve of elections in Israel, reflected hope for a change
in government in Israel, which might lead to a change in Israel’s
negotiating position. I believe the intention was to signal to a new
government that the Syrian track was ripe, and that it would be better
to deal with it early - that is, give it precedence over the
Palestinian track.
The course of the negotiations as described above
can give a pretty accurate picture of the point at which the talks were
broken off. I would not go as far as to say that 80 percent of an
agreement had been wrapped up; but I believe the parties had indeed
made significant progress, and, with hard work and a creative touch, it
would have been possible to conclude a signed peace treaty within a
relatively short space of time. Still, it is clear that significant
differences remained on substantive issues; above all, on the border
and the security arrangements.
The main understandings between Israel and Syria
can be summarized as follows:
- Withdrawal - the Syrians understood that
Israel had committed itself to a significant withdrawal, but not to a
specific line, and that this readiness was subject to its demands on
security and the nature of peace being met. In an appearance before the
Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee in August 1994, I said
that if I were the Syrian head of intelligence I would infer from
Israeli statements that Israel understood the imperative of giving up
the Golan in return for acceptance of its demands on security, water,
and normalization.
- Normalization - Syria accepted most of the
normalization categories raised by Israel, including full diplomatic
relations, resident ambassadors, economic cooperation, trade, transport
and tourism. But there was no agreement on cultural exchanges, health
or agriculture, and the Syrians intimated that they would prefer to
minimize references to normalization in the peace treaty itself. For
Syria, the preferred terminology was "normal peace relations," the main
elements of which are mutual recognition, agreed borders and diplomatic
relations. In an interview with a-Safir (November 1995) Foreign
Minister a-Sha’ara said "we don’t like the term normalization, and
prefer to use the phrase normal peace relations."
- Comprehensiveness of the agreement - Israel
and Syria agreed on the overall concept, the main points of which were
that an accord with Syria would include a peace treaty with Lebanon;
that it would be independent of any other agreements; that it would be
accompanied by regional reconciliation; and that it would have an
extensive economic dimension based on regional cooperation.
- The international economic package - Israel
and Syria agreed on American leadership of a move in which governments
and the private sector would promote regional and bilateral projects
under the heading "Economic Partnership for Peace." The Americans got
Saudi agreement in principle to back this effort.
- Security arrangements - the Non-Paper of May
1995 heralded the beginning of a structured debate on the various
security issues, focusing on demilitarized and limited forces zones,
and facilitating a mapping of the differences, with each side
presenting its approach and needs in a frank and businesslike
manner.
But residual differences between the parties
should not be underestimated:
- The extent of the withdrawal - Israel is not
prepared to withdraw to the June 4, 1967 lines, because it believes
there is a good legal case for the international border of 1923.
Agreement on the border is obviously one of the keys to a deal. (21)
Asad’s Syria, however, may well continue to insist on a greater
territorial return than Egypt got, if only to justify the 20 year-long
delay after the signing of the Israeli-Egyptian peace treaty.
- Security arrangements - the parties have not
yet engaged in detailed discussions, and the differences are still
wide, especially over the depth of the "relevant areas." The Syrians
argue that "peace provides security" since it destroys the roots of
conflict, and they thereby seek to minimize the significance of the
security regime. Israel, on the contrary, argues that nurturing Israel
- Syria ties will take time, and that deep and stable security
arrangements to prevent surprise attack or war are necessary, as stated
in the Non-Paper’s aims. Israel seeks a peace time limitation of
forces, a distancing of offensive units (armor divisions) from the
border areas, backed up by reliable monitoring and early warning
systems.
- The water issue - Israel, arguing that water
has existential significance, seeks practical arrangements based on
current usage, while the Syrians will certainly seek to control the
water sources. Discussions on a water regime and allocations remain to
be concluded.
- The Lebanese problem - Israel and Syria have
yet to discuss this issue in depth, but it contains seeds of potential
friction. There could be a clash between Israel’s interest in
conducting negotiations in a positive atmosphere without terror attacks
from Lebanon and Syria’s role in Lebanon and perceived responsibility
for maintaining peace and stability there. My conclusion is that in
peacetime, however, the Syrian presence in Lebanon gives Israel a
strategic advantage, if only from the point of view of preventing
terror.
- The nature of the peace - the Syrians still
see peace as a situation in which Israel is cut down to its "natural
size," with limited bilateral relations between the two countries, and
Israel prevented from using the peace to establish a position of
regional superiority.
Israel’s strategic power constitutes a problem
for Syria and the Syrians are likely to raise the issue (even as
messengers for Egypt) as a subject for discussion and to demand that
Israel dismantle its alleged nuclear capability, which they believe
gives it regional supremacy. I do not, however, think that demand, if
it is made, will be a deal-breaker, assuming the Syrians are satisfied
on the Golan issue.
THE SIGNIFICANCE AND LESSONS OF THE NEGOTIATIONS
In October 1994, in a speech to the Knesset,
Israel’s then Prime Minister, Yitzhak Rabin, outlined his conception of
peace with Syria and the future of the Israeli settlement on the Golan.
He promised that he would submit any agreement with the Syrians to a
referendum, and, it seems to me in retrospect, that this speech
accurately reflects Rabin’s Golan legacy. This is what he said:
"As long as Syria refused to recognize Israel’s
right to exist and live in peace there was no room for dialogue. As
long as Damascus rejected our hand extended in friendship, we continued
to strengthen our military and civilian hold on the Golan Heights, a
few dozen kilometers from Damascus... But there are signs of change
that point to Syria’s readiness to be a partner in a journey to peace.
The road is still long, there is still a lot of work to do, peace with
Syria is still distant. But we have no intention of ignoring the signs.
We will not go back to the days of ‘there is no one to talk to;’ we
won’t go back to the days of ‘we are waiting for a phone call;’ we are
going forward!"(22)
As for the Syrians, in the years preceding
negotiations and in the years of stalemate too, the leadership took
pains to point out that for Syria peace was a "strategic choice," and
kept channels of communication with Israel open. In early 1996 (at the
breaking of the fast towards the end of the Ramadan), Asad declared:
"The peace process has not advanced so far, but we in Syria will
continue to favor peace, no matter how difficult the conditions ... we
want to establish friendship with all people on the basis of our
national interests and our rights."(23)
I believe we can sum up the significance of the
negotiations that have been conducted up till now on an optimistic
note:
- Both parties have a basic interest in taking the negotiations
forward, and today do not see any option other than continuing the
process. The probability of an attempted Syrian land-grab on the Golan
is low, because in my view Asad won’t chance an operation that could
escalate and lead to all out war, the consequences of which for Syria
would be disastrous.
- The convergence of interests between Israel and Syria on the time
axis is growing, which means an increasing awareness that delaying
tactics serve neither side.
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- From Israel’s point of view, peace with Syria entails a solution of
its difficulties in the Lebanese theater as well, enabling an orderly
withdrawal from Lebanon and guaranteeing the safety of its northern
towns and villages. It would also promote its relations with all Arab
states, and strengthen its position on the Palestinian track in the
permanent status negotiations.
- From Syrian’s point of view, peace would achieve the following key
goals: return of the Golan, elevation of national pride and prestige,
end of isolation, improved ties with the U.S. and de jure control in
Lebanon. Moreover, Syria has a clear interest in achieving a peace
treaty with Israel before the permanent settlement of the
Palestinian problem, and it needs the economic fruits of peace as soon
as it can get them, given its growing economic difficulties.
- The U.S. elections in November 2000 and their impact on the
American administration’s ability to devote energy and provide
incentives for the process might create time pressure on the parties.
President Clinton exudes eager anticipation and readiness to contribute
toward bringing about a breakthrough, but there is no doubt that this
time he expects the parties to take into consideration the fact that
the political time-clock for him to go down in history as the man who
brought about the Israeli-Syrian peace is winding down. Barak, too, has
set a target date for progress in the negotiations within 15 months - a
timetable that conforms with and is in fact drawn from the American
election timetable. Israel, at least recognizes the need to adapt the
negotiating timetable to Clinton’s political timetable. It seems that
the Syrians understand this too.
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- Both sides have a clear idea of the contours of the solution and a
list of issues that require further attention. In general terms, the
equations "land for peace" or "land for security" are acceptable to
both. It is clear they are ready to proceed not out of love, but
because of interests and policy considerations that have evolved
against a background of global and regional change. In other words, we
are talking about marriage between mature adults, who, given past
scars, insist on a financial guarantee against an early divorce.
- Neither side wants to be blamed for missing the chance for peace.
The new circumstances created after the elections in Israel provide a
"second chance" for the process, with an effort to learn from past
negotiations, to better understand the sensitivities of the other side
and to avoid past mistakes.
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In this context, the following should be
stressed:
- Despite their differences, the parties managed to conduct
negotiations in a positive, informal and sometimes even friendly
atmosphere. This is particularly true of the negotiations at Wye in
1995-96, in which politicians and senior army personnel from both sides
frankly discussed the most sensitive issues on the agenda. Looking to
the future, it is clear that a positive atmosphere, mutual respect, and
understanding for each other's interests will affect the negotiating
teams’ ability to take the dialogue forward.
- It is important to preserve the secrecy of the discussions and to
prevent leaks, which could make things difficult for the negotiators,
given their respective domestic pressures.
- Both sides recognize today that peace must also be based on the
convergence of basic strategic interests, such as regional stability
and opening up the region economically, a process from which both stand
to benefit in a win-win situation. Breaking the hold of the zero-sum
game mentality, in which one side’s gain is seen by the other as its
inevitable loss, is essential if the desired breakthrough is to be
made.
- The more each side recognizes the others justifiable feelings and
sensitivities, the easier it will be to assuage mutual fears and
anxieties. For example:
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- It is important that Israel recognizes Syrian concerns in the
security package and understands that Syria sees Israel as a serious
threat. The Syrians complained that in previous sessions Israel based
its proposals for security arrangements on the Golan exclusively on its
own concept of security, which has Israel’s security at the center,
points at Syria’s ostensible aggressive intentions and emphasizes
potential dangers to Israel. But it is important that Israel
understands and internalizes Syria’s security anxieties as well. Syrian
researchers argue that the Israeli threat to Syria is acute, since one
third of the Syrian population, a number equal to the entire population
of Israel, lives in the Damascus area, 40 kilometers from the border.
Furthermore, three quarters of the Syrian population is concentrated in
urban areas between Damascus and Haleb, a territory no bigger than
Israel. Syria also sees itself as a victim of aggression and of
Israel’s military supremacy. According to the Syrians, backed up by
quotes from Israeli military men and academics, Israel was the
aggressor in all the wars. They argue that this was the case too in the
years immediately after the 1949 armistice, which were saturated with
border incidents.(24)
- A change in Israel’s policy of all-embracing normalization should
be considered. It would not necessarily produce gains for Israel or its
economy, and it creates anxieties on the other side. Moreover, there is
a genuine difficulty in bridging all the gaps at once. Peace is signed
between leaders and states, but its social internalization takes much
longer.
- As for Syria, it must internalize the fact that it is facing a
limited "window of opportunity" and must take brave decisions, not only
on its strategic readiness to go along the peace road, but on practical
steps to convince the Israeli people of the sincerity of its intentions
and that the price of peace is worth paying. This means accelerating
the decision-making process in Syria, as well as gestures and
confidence building measures that will make a strong impression on the
Israelis. In this context, one need only recall the psychological
breakthrough effected by Egyptian President Sadat’s visit to Israel in
1977. The Syrians should show greater flexibility on security issues,
and display a readiness to take practical steps to guarantee Israeli
interests, for example, on the question of water.
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- The importance of the Lebanese question - previous negotiations
were conducted under the shadow of terror and army operations in
Lebanon. Continuation of the state of tension in Lebanon will place a
heavy burden on the negotiations and could lead to their collapse. But
since an agreement with Lebanon would be a consequence of a deal with
Syria, any "Lebanon first" notion makes sense only as an initial stage
in the implementation of a comprehensive agreement. I think it might be
possible to discuss implementation of a "Lebanon first" deal, once an
agreement in principle is reached on Israeli recognition of the Syrian
presence in Lebanon, assuming Israel concludes that this presence
contributes to stability. The operative significance of this is that
with the renewal of negotiations, it is important that the parties
begin a dialogue on the Lebanon issue, and that Syria uses its
influence on the Hizballah and Iran to facilitate peace talks without
tensions and crises. This will be a real test whether the Syrians are
capable of giving up their belief that military pressure in the field
on Israel will force it to soften its stand in the peace talks. A
period of quiet in Lebanon is essential (even if only temporary) to
enable meaningful negotiations between Israel and Syria.
- The role of the US - a condition for every agreement between Israel
and its neighbors has been the conduct of direct negotiations. One of
the mistakes the Arab states used to make was to wait for political
pressure to be exerted on Israel, in anticipation of a solution imposed
from the outside. It seems that now both Israel and the Arabs have
matured in this respect. Israel realizes that the weight of decision
rests on its shoulders, whereas to the Arabs, and in particular Syria,
it is clear that they cannot expect the Americans to do the job for
them or a deep crisis to occur between Israel and the U.S. over
Israel’s standing firm on its vital interests.
- Therefore, both sides now see the U.S. as a facilitator and
mediator, able to bridge existing gaps and to provide any agreement
they reach with security and economic underpinning. Syria and Israel
can be likened to two paratroopers, sitting in an American plane, and
jumping from it into a new world, into the open air, with two American
parachutes spread above them. From this point of view, the "American
role" actually gains in importance, and its input becomes even more
critical than before. And it is to a more detailed analysis of this
enhanced American role that we now turn.
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